•The verdict of 2004 was also a huge surprise, but it left a puzzle in its wake. The final all-India seats and vote share for the major alliances showed how difficult it was to claim that the Congress and its allies had won a mandate to rule.

While the Congress had improved its tally to 145, an improvement of 31 seats over its worst-ever performance in 1999, its vote share actually fell by 1.9 percentage points between the two elections. Barring the National Front of 1989 and the United Front of 1996, no other party or alliance had come to power at the Centre with such a small share of the popular vote. Compared to the 35.88 per cent of the NDA, the UPA secured a tiny lead of half a percentage point at 36.53.

The difference in vote share between the Congress and BJP was 4.28 percentage points in 2004 — the Congress got 26.44 per cent and the BJP 22.16 per cent.

Verdict 2009 is more like the verdicts of 1977 and 1980. Like them, it is startling. But unlike the 2004 verdict, it is clear. The winner, Congress, has notched an estimated 10 percentage point lead over the loser, BJP.

•Since the 1990s, a theme of Indian politics has been the decline of the two main national parties, Congress and BJP, and the ascendance of regional players. In the run-up to this election, it was widely predicted that the Big Two would become less decisive to the final outcome than ever before.

... contd.