The results of the September 16 byelections to one assembly and three Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal have suddenly boosted the hopes of those in the Opposition who have been dreaming of a mahajot or grand alliance to oust the ruling Left Front from its unbroken 29-year rule. On the face of it, it looks like there is a status quo. Each party — the Congress, Trinamool Congress and the Left — has held on to its seats. But if one looks closer at the results, there are dangerous portents for the ruling Left.

In the run-up to the May-June Assembly elections this year, Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee had proposed a mahajot of the Congress and her party to fight the CPI(M). But the Congress set a condition: quit the NDA. Evidently, the Congress could not be seen to link hands with any partner of the BJP, its main opponent at the national level. Mamata refused to do so.

Internally, the Congress was relieved — with the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre dependent on the support of the CPI(M), it could hardly put up a robust fight against the Marxists in West Bengal. Eventually this dichotomy showed up in the assembly election results, where the Left was surprised by its huge victory (235 seats out of 294). An analysis of the results later showed that the Left had won in at least 80 seats because of a division of votes.

However, a fortnight before the byelections, Mamata again proposed a mahajot and supported the Congress in Malda even though her ally, BJP, had put up a candidate. This time, the Congress did not set any conditions. Contrary to the usual trend of the ruling party having an advantage in by-elections, the CPI(M), the largest force in the Left Front, failed to wrest the Malda Lok Sabha seat from the Congress or to make any impact in the marginal Bongaon Assembly seat, where the Trinamool Congress increased its vote share. As expected, the CPI(M) retained the Purulia and Katwa Lok Sabha seats, both strongholds.

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