For the CPI(M), the Malda defeat was the most disappointing. The party had reckoned that the Congress would fade without its legendary leader A.B.A. Ghani Khan Choudhuri, who ruled the belt till his death earlier this year. Its second calculation was that the Congress and Trinamool vote would be split in a tripartite contest, giving the CPI(M) the edge. On the basis of these calculations, the CPI(M) put up party stalwart Sailen Sarkar, the parliamentary affairs minister in the current ministry, for the Malda seat. The Congress put up Ghani Khan’s brother, A.H. Khan Choudhuri.

Sarkar lost and Choudhuri won the seat by a margin of 83,391 votes. In fact, the brother got 2 per cent votes more than what Ghani Khan himself had bagged in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections.

The CPI(M) scrambled to read the fine print. Its discovery: Ghani’s name still commands loyalty in Malda. More importantly, and alarmingly, the numbers show that a chunk of Trinamool votes, at least 50,000, went to the Congress. At Bongaon, the TMC increased its margin, with Sougata Roy winning the seat by 5775 votes. The byelection was called following the death of incumbent Bhupen Seth. Seth’s margin then was 3465.

For Mamata, another vindication of her mahajot theory was Congress president Sonia Gandhi’s phone call shortly after the byelection results were declared. Certainly, the byelection results have given Mamata a shot in the arm.

But the state’s senior Congress and Trinamool leaders point to a fatal weakness in her mahajot formula. As one veteran Congressman, many years senior to Mamata, says: “Do you think Sonia will risk all and allow a mahajot that could see Mamata as CM and herself out of power at the Centre?” He pointed to the obvious: the Congress-led UPA government is critically dependent on the support of the Left MPs.

... contd.