The Mumbai terror strikes were waiting to happen. With some forward planning the police could have anticipated them and placed their forces on alert, rather than have waited for such a tragedy to take 200 lives in India’s commercial capital.

Why was the Mumbai tragedy almost preordained? First, there is the overall alienation of large sections in the Muslim community, both globally and locally, which has been exacerbated by the Gujarat riots. The rise of fundamentalism in the country during BJP rule, when organisations like the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and the Bajrang Dal were given a free run, also added to the problem. The resultant antagonism in the Muslim population locally was exploited by two categories of players — Muslim fundamentalists and political parties like the Samajwadi Party in UP and Maharashtra, attempting to garner Muslim votes. This, in turn, provided a free play to organisations such as the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) and enabled it to expand its base in UP, Maharashtra, Kerala and other states.

Maharashtra has been particularly tolerant of these groups resulting in the mushrooming of madrassas and the growth of terror cells. Many secure bases for terror cells flourished in the city as well as in the state. Mumbai’s community-specific ghettoes provided a base for such cells to function with impunity under community cover. Any intrusion by the police into such areas is given a communal twist, which ends up preventing effective policing.

The crackdown on terror cells in Maharashtra in May was regarded as a triumph for the police, particularly the Anti-terror Task Force. It is now clear that these were just a few of the cells operating in the area. There were many awaiting an appropriate moment to strike. A crackdown on some cells does not mean the end of the terror network. It has to be followed through to ensure the complete elimination, or at least dismemberment, of the cells. The earlier triumph proved temporary and may have motivated other cells to do something spectacular — resulting in the recent blasts.

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