For the moment, the recently held election to the Constituent Assembly does not seem to be bringing the much-needed stability to Nepal. There is fear, in fact, that it may lead to further uncertainty. The Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists (CPN-M) which for the past one week has been projecting itself as the sole winner and the future agenda setter of the country, is going to be the single largest party in a 601-member Constituent Assembly, but will be at least 60 short of the simple majority required to form the government on its own. As the results of all the 240 first-past-the-post seats have been declared, with the Maoists cornering 120, they’re likely to end up with about 31 per cent of votes polled when the counting of each of the 54 parties’ vote share is over. In that case, their share in the 335 seats under the PR system will be almost equal to what they got in the first-past-the-post system. The Maoists’ final tally (estimated to be 235-238) will be about 160 short of the two-thirds majority that the future government will require to have major decisions adopted.

That will only mean that government formation will be protracted, with all permutations and combinations having to be explored. That also might mean several compromises on individual party stands and principles, and especially for the CPN-M, if it insists on heading the government.

The Maoists’ position suffered a sudden setback, if not a total reversal, under the PR system. But soon after the results and trends of the FPTP began pouring in, non-Maoist parties, which together will have at least 130 seats more than the Maoists, were a demoralised lot. They conceded their defeat through their silence while the Maoists began declaring their priorities in government. No doubt, a large section of the neutral populace including those who did not vote for the Maoists, say that the emergence of the CPN-M as the single largest party is an indicator of the people’s desire for change, and that they should be given a chance to lead the government. But it’s not clear that this is a vote for the Maoists’ radical economic and social policies.

... contd.