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Why Nepal holds its breath

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  • Yubaraj Ghimire
    For the moment, the recently held election to the Constituent Assembly does not seem to be bringing the much-needed stability to Nepal. There is fear, in fact, that it may lead to further uncertainty. The Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists (CPN-M) which for the past one week has been projecting itself as the sole winner and the future agenda setter of the country, is going to be the single largest party in a 601-member Constituent Assembly, but will be at least 60 short of the simple majority required to form the government on its own. As the results of all the 240 first-past-the-post seats have been declared, with the Maoists cornering 120, they’re likely to end up with about 31 per cent of votes polled when the counting of each of the 54 parties’ vote share is over. In that case, their share in the 335 seats under the PR system will be almost equal to what they got in the first-past-the-post system. The Maoists’ final tally (estimated to be 235-238) will be about 160 short of the two-thirds majority that the future government will require to have major decisions adopted.

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    That will only mean that government formation will be protracted, with all permutations and combinations having to be explored. That also might mean several compromises on individual party stands and principles, and especially for the CPN-M, if it insists on heading the government.

    The Maoists’ position suffered a sudden setback, if not a total reversal, under the PR system. But soon after the results and trends of the FPTP began pouring in, non-Maoist parties, which together will have at least 130 seats more than the Maoists, were a demoralised lot. They conceded their defeat through their silence while the Maoists began declaring their priorities in government. No doubt, a large section of the neutral populace including those who did not vote for the Maoists, say that the emergence of the CPN-M as the single largest party is an indicator of the people’s desire for change, and that they should be given a chance to lead the government. But it’s not clear that this is a vote for the Maoists’ radical economic and social policies.

    “We are a radical party and we will not give up radicalism”, Prachanda declared in an interview given to the government television that’s under Maoist control at the moment. On one single day, the NEPSE (Nepal stock exchange) dipped by 26 per cent causing a huge loss last week soon after the FPTP results came in. Prachanda soon addressed the business community to assure them that the Maoist government would be business and investment friendly. But just 24 hours later, he asserted that there would be no compromise on the party’s radicalism.

    As a result, private investors in the health and education sectors are apprehensive, fearing that they will either be taken over by the government, or that there will be an unpractical capping of fees of schools and health services. Influential Maoist leaders have already instructed government schools not to charge any admission fee from students. The instruction the private schools have been given is far more stern. The judiciary also fears the executive’s control.

    It may yet take at least five to six weeks for the constitution of the House, paving the way for forming the new government. The G.P. Koirala-headed government is under pressure to quit from his own party colleagues. On the other hand, the two major parties, the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), are yet undecided, if not totally reluctant, about joining a future government headed by the Maoists.

    K.P. Oli, a powerful UML leader, has insisted that to say that the people have given a mandate to the Maoists is wrong. The parties must now prepare a common agenda or a minimum programme before they form government, he says. This only indicates that after the initial euphoria, Maoists have to scale down their projection as uncontested head of the future government.

    The current governmentlessness on the one hand, and uncertainty over the formation of the future government, has already begun hitting the country and the people. There is acute shortage of food while the fuel crisis, largely because of Nepal’s huge arrears to the Indian Oil Corporation, has hit the country’s economy. India’s policy of stopping export of cement and steel has affected construction activities. People’s discontent is palpable. All these only put pressure on the Maoists: They must become more flexible, conciliatory and pragmatic and less radical if they want to form the government and run it too.

    ghimire.yubaraj@gmail.com

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