As Pakistan’s civilian leaders embark on a bold political confrontation with President Pervez Musharraf, India will hope for a fundamental transformation in the polity next door rather than a rearrangement of the pieces.

The unfolding power struggle in Islamabad is not merely about the future of Musharraf and Pakistan; its outcome could well define the prospects of the global war on terror, the future of the northwestern parts of the subcontinent, and the peace process with India.

The consequences of the deepening political crisis in Pakistan — a nuclear armed state that has been sucked into a shooting war between the US and NATO forces on the one hand and the al-Qaeda and the Taliban on the other — are global. That in turn, would suggest significant international involvement in managing Pakistan’s internal turmoil.

India, on its part, needs to encourage the trends towards a structural change in Pakistan in favour of democratic consolidation, civilian control over military, and a reconciliation with the neighbours.

While hoping for the best, India must necessarily brace for the worst — the civilian leaders might be forced, once again, to bend before the entrenched institutional power of Pakistan Army.

Pakistan’s civilian leaders are easily set upon each other. Acting together, Musharraf and the Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, have the wherewithal to divide the civilian leaders once again and overpower the popular political aspirations for democratic governance.

A return to either direct or indirect military rule, with Musharraf choosing to sack the elected government with Army’s blessing — is bound to plunge Pakistan into a deeper crisis and push the region towards a wider conflict.

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