The government’s acquiescence to a “go-slow” approach on the nuclear deal to assuage the Left may have temporarily defused the political crisis but has ended up increasing uncertainties for the deal which is still to cross a few more milestones.

By settling for October 22 as the next date for the meeting, sources said, the government is “cutting it very fine” and now runs the risk of losing momentum gained from conclusion of the 123 agreement with the US. While there is no deadline for India, sources said, the fact remains that the Bush Administration will not have the luxury of time in its last year. The delay in making a “formal request” to IAEA for talks has shrunk all margins making it very complicated for negotiators.

Consider these:

•The mutually agreed timeline was that the Bush Administration would approach the US Congress in the third week of January. Working backwards, India hoped to conclude its safeguards agreement with IAEA by next month and the US aimed at obtaining the exemption from the Nuclear Suppliers Group before the year-end.

•Thereafter, the first couple of weeks were to be used by Washington to prepare the non-proliferation assessment and couple of other documents that need to accompany the 123 agreement when it’s placed before the Congress.

•This agreement has to lie, according to US law, for 90 legislative days before it can be considered approved.

•In all, the understanding was to have the agreement ready for signature, latest, by next Fall.

... contd.