According to me, the National Mind was weighing between two options in the just-concluded elections: change and stability. Change was the need of the hour since there was nothing exceptional about the performance of the Congress-led UPA government between 2004 and 2009. Barring a few welcome initiatives like the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, the UPA government’s track record was average on some counts and dismal on most others. Judged solely on the basis of its performance, the government deserved to go. However, the voters rarely oust a government on the criterion of performance alone. They also look for a viable and stable alternative.

In some of the campaign-time television debates that I participated in, I had said that more than political parties and commentators, it is the people of India who have the highest stake in political stability at the Centre. They know instinctively, guided by historical memory, that political instability in New Delhi is hurtful to the nation and to themselves in their daily lives. In their eyes, the need for a stable government had become greater on account of the economic crisis, created partly by external factors, and the turmoil in India’s neighbourhood, especially in Pakistan. An unstable coalition government, whose attention would get diverted to managing its own internal squabbles and whose energies would be wasted in ensuring its own survival, would not, in the estimation of the electorate, meet the challenges before the nation.

The National Mind would have been the happiest if there was a strong possibility for a positive change with reliable stability. This is where the BJP and the alliance it led failed to meet the people’s expectations. In four big states—Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal, which together account for 143 Lok Sabha seats-the BJP’s own strength was near-zero. Moreover, it had no allies in these states in 2009, and such allies as it had in the six-year NDA rule (1998-2004) had deserted it for fear of losing Muslim votes. It did nothing in the past five years to allay this fear. Furthermore, when the Biju Janata Dal parted ways with the BJP in March this year, the latter’s ability to lead a stable coalition at the Centre got seriously dented. It thus became obvious to the people that any future BJP-led coalition in New Delhi would be a hotchpotch arrangement, critically dependent for its survival on undependable non-Congress non-Left parties.

... contd.