Why this Comrade hasn’t lost—yet

But Chief Minister Manik Sarkar dismisses its significance,calling it a bandh forced on the people. “There was nothing democratic about this bandh,” says Sarkar,who has been chief minister of this North-eastern state for three consecutive terms since 1998.

Tripura,like Bengal was till recently,has been a stronghold of the Left for decades. After the first Left Front government,headed by Nripen Chakraborty,the father of the Communist movement in the state,was installed in Tripura in 1978 after the Emergency,the state has been almost continuously under Left rule except for one term,after the Congress routed it in the 1988 elections.

Tripura,which became a full-fledged state only in 1972,had its first elected government in 1963 (when the former princely state was a Union Territory) with Sachindra Lal Singh of the Congress becoming the first chief minister. But the Communist movement in Tripura dates back to as early as 1938,with Biren Datta and Nripen Chakraborty leading it from the front. Chakraborty,in fact,was the first to become an elected member of the then Territorial Council in 1957,a 30-member House which had as many as 14 Communist members. The CPI(M) led by Chakraborty and Dasarath Deb,a widely respected tribal leader,in fact became partners of the post-Emergency Congress for Democracy-led government of Prafulla Chandra Das as well as the Janata Party-led government of Radhika Ranjan Gupta,but both governments fell because the CPM withdrew support.

The Left flag over Tripura was finally hoisted full mast in January 1978,when Chakraborty became the state’s chief minister,a government that lasted 10 long years. While the Left returned to power in 1993,Manik Sarkar has been in his third consecutive term as chief minister after he took over the mantle from Dasarath Deb in 1998.

“We are a party that has been with the people. The people are with us and it is the people who will decide whom to elect. The people here can easily identify the conspiracies against our government and thwart them,” says Sarkar.

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So,will the winds of change that swept Bengal blow over Tripura too when it goes to polls in 2013?

“The West Bengal situation was different. Look at the changes that Tripura has undergone in recent years. Insurgency has become a thing of the past. Peace has returned almost permanently. We have been able to bring about development despite so many hurdles,including a not-so-friendly Centre. The people’s living conditions have improved. We have been able to give peace,harmony,stability and integrity to the society,” says Sarkar.

Politically too,he says,Tripura is different from the other states of the Northeast. “While there is a tendency among other states of the region to tilt towards the party in power in New Delhi,the people of Tripura have by and large chosen the Left,” he says.

However,Opposition leaders in the state feel people may choose different in the future.

Ratan Lal Nath,leader of the Congress Legislature Party (CLP) and Leader of the Opposition in the State Assembly,brandishes a string of documents to denounce the state government’s claims of development.

“The Chief Minister has recently started chanting a new mantra that the Centre is not providing funds and that the state is facing a severe financial crisis. On the contrary,Tripura is floating on funds. It is the Left Front government which has not been able to spend it judiciously,” says Nath.

“Look at the various flagship programmes of the government. Tripura is invariably ranked last among all the North-eastern states,be it in respect to the National Rural Health Mission,mid-day meal,Indira Awas Yojana,Sarva Siksha of ICDS,” says Nath.

On the streets,there are signs of disenchantment with the government. “Unemployment is indeed high. The government has established many educational institutions,including medical colleges and engineering colleges,but where are the jobs? Have they bothered to find out where these educated people will find jobs?” asks Rana Das,an engineer who has been on a 20-days-a-month and Rs 200-a-day contract with a state government department for several years.

A few leaders in the Left admit that some of the issues that agitated the masses in Bengal,especially growing urban and rural unemployment,are a concern in Tripura too. Lack of industrialisation is another worry. Successive Left governments in Tripura too had launched revolutionary land reforms like Bengal which had struck a chord with the masses.

The question in Tripura too is whether the Left would be able to gauge the changes in the aspirations of the new generation,the role of the rising middle class and the urge for jobs.

“Because of geographic limitations,there are not many industries in Tripura,except the rubber industry and a handful of tea gardens. It is a fact. Because there are not many industries,unemployment is a problem. But the state government cannot do much on the industrialisation front because of the location of the state,” says senior CPI(M) Central Committee member Nurul Hooda.

Like in Bengal,the party’s control over all things,including jobs,is giving rise to resentment. “One has to be a CPI(M) worker or member to get a government job,” says Rajib Dalal,an unemployed youth who holds a diploma in engineering. Dalal says that in the last few years,many associations have been set up by unemployed youth in the state.

Subal Dey,editor of Syandan Patrika,a leading local daily,too is critical of the government. A batchmate of the Chief Minister,Dey calls Manik Sarkar’s government a partisan one that discriminates between Left and non-Left followers. “This government runs from the party office and even a clerk’s transfer has to be okayed by the party,” he alleges.

While Dey believes much is wrong with the government,he’s not betting on a regime change. “Who will do that? The Congress? It’s a divided house. The Trinamool? But where is it in Tripura? If you look at the 2008 elections,you will find that not even one AICC leader was here in Tripura even three days ahead of the polls,” says Dey.

Though the Trinamool doesn’t have much of a presence yet in Tripura,it’s enthused by its Bengal victory. Arun Chandra Bhaumik,convenor of the Trinamool Congress in Tripura,says,“It is the Trinamool Congress which will finally oust the Left Front from its last bastion. For Mamata Banerjee,two years is enough time.”

But ousting the Left from Tripura may not be that easy. Chief Minister Sarkar says,“Ask any person in any district and they will tell you the aakash-paatal difference in roads,drinking water,rural housing,schools,PDS and security during the Congress rule and our time. We have been able to create an atmosphere and infrastructure which has started attracting investors to Tripura. This is no joke for a land-locked,far-flung state surrounded by Bangladesh on three sides,” says Sarkar.

Senior CPI(M) Central Committee member Nurul Hooda points out that Left governments over the years have been doing a commendable job on infrastructure development and tackling insurgency. “There is tremendous development. Whether it is roads,bridges,making drinking water available or generating power. Unlike other North-eastern states,there is less power outages in Tripura,” he says.

The state’s biggest power plant at Palatana—with an installed capacity of 750 MW—is being commissioned next year. More flights are connecting Agartala to different parts of the country. Transit through Bangladesh is gradually becoming a reality. The Centre has invested Rs 73 crore for a state-of-the-art integrated check post (ICP) on the Indo-Bangla border at Agartala. A new railway track will soon be operational between Agartala and Sabroom in the extreme south. And,most importantly,insurgency and violence have become a thing of the past.

With development as his mantra,Sarkar does not foresee an immediate threat from the Trinamool. But he should perhaps start paying attention to poll statistics. The Left Front may have won more seats in the Assembly in 2008 in comparison to 2003,but the Congress vote share is on the rise. For the first time in Tripura’s history,the Congress managed to capture two nagar panchayats,apart from taking its tally of panchayat seats from just 30 in 2004 to as many as 104 in 2010. In the Agartala Municipal Committee too,the Congress has increased its strength from zero in 2005 to five in 2010.

The ‘poorest’ chief minister

When he filed his nomination for the last state assembly elections in January 2008, Manik Sarkar’s balance showed Rs 13,920. The label of the “poorest chief minister of India” seems well-earned. The 62-year-old gets a monthly salary of Rs 9,200 and a subsidiary allowance of Rs 1,200 per month,both of which he donates to the party fund. Sakar’s wife,who works in a government department,takes a cycle rickshaw to office every day. Even if they both have to attend the same function,she still takes a rickshaw while he travels in his official car.

A commerce graduate from the MBB College in Agartala,Sarkar became a student leader in the mid-1960s. He has been an MLA since 1980 and is one of the three chief ministers in the country who have been in office for three consecutive terms.

Party-wise strength in Tripura State Assembly

NUMBER OF SEATS IN TRIPURA ASSEMBLY: 60

While the CPI(M),the main LF partner,increased its strength from 38 in 2003 to 46 in 2008,its vote share did not increase proportionately. In 2003,it polled 46.28 per cent votes,but could poll only 51.21 per cent in 2008 despite an increase of eight seats. In contrast,the Congress strength went down from 13 in 2003 to 10 in 2008,but its vote share went up from 32.84 per cent in 2003 to 44.38 per cent in 2008.

—Inputs by Manoj CG