The JD(S) too has formally announced that it wants to seek the mandate of the people. Given a choice, most of its MLAs will not favour fresh elections. And in this context, informal negotiations with some Congress leaders have been on. The JD(S) seems to be caught in a bind. On the one hand they see the ULB polls as an indication of a rise in their grass-root support. The Indian Express-CNN-IBN poll conducted last month too reported that the popular support for the party had increased. At another level, they are unsure as to whether this could be sustained till the next elections, especially in the light of the events of the last two weeks. How would the public respond to the JD(S) not having kept its promise to transfer power? Will they be on the back-foot once the BJP launches a statewide campaign on the issue? Again, this would hinge on the timing of the elections.

The Congress leadership at the state level awaits the ‘cue’ from the high command. Some leaders favour brokering an alliance with the JD(S) — or offering outside support — in order to consolidate their position. Others want to force a midterm poll. The ULB election results bring no cheer to the party. At the state level, the party is a hopelessly divided house. They are hoping to cash in on the collapse of the alliance and assume that the voters would endorse its claims to avoid further political instability. This complacency appears misplaced.

... contd.