So how long will the present chief minister be able to remain in office? In the absence of an agreement between the Congress and the JD(S), would the governor opt for President’s Rule or ask the chief minister to continue as head of the caretaker government till fresh elections? Ideally, the Congress would like to club the Karnataka assembly poll with the Lok Sabha elections, which appear to be a distinct possibility early next year. The JD(S) and the BJP would prefer the Karnataka poll to be held much earlier, and de-linked from the Lok Sabha elections. The political maneouvring to follow, will only be to ensure this electoral advantage.

The writer is a Bangalore-based political scientist.