Mr Wilders campaigned on simple messages: a bigger European Union budget rebate; less interference from Brussels, especially on immigration policies; and blunt rejection of Turkey’s joining the EU. His party promises to make sure that this “undiluted voice” is heard in Brussels. That may be hard, not least because the Freedom Party plans not to join any parliamentary group, leaving it little speaking time and few staff. But Mr Wilders is confident of his impact. “We still have the whole media circus to play,” he said on television.

His success reflects the qualms that in 2002 led many Dutch voters to back Pim Fortuyn (before he was murdered); and in June 2005 inspired a majority to reject the draft EU constitution. These include hostility to immigration and Islam, and broad fears about loss of sovereignty and national identity. It is compounded by a lack of trust in the establishment. “People don’t believe any more that the Dutch or the EU establishment are able to protect them,” says Bas Heijne, a political observer. The parties that fared worst are from the establishment: the CDA, the liberal VVD and the Dutch Labour party. Labour lost so heavily that Mr Wilders questioned if it could decently stay in the coalition government.

The mainstream has good reason to worry. Mr Wilders’s vote would translate into 24 seats in the national parliament, making him hard to avoid as a coalition partner. He is calling for an early election. But his success may stabilise the government in the short run, since other parties do not want to face voters yet. Many hope that Mr Wilders, like earlier populists, will trip up before the election, due by May 2011. But Mr Wilders has proved more astute than his predecessors. And the people to whom his ideas appeal are in the Netherlands to stay—and vote.

© The Economist Newspaper Limited 2009