Opinion Winner takes all
The Shiv Sena,BJP and NCP must rethink their politics...
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The Maharashtra outcome is noteworthy more for the resounding defeat for the opposition than for the victory,by default,of the Congress-NCP combine. The BJP-Shiv Sena managed to blow a near-perfect opportunity. The cards were clearly stacked in the NDAs favour,with an unpopular government in power for a decade,and with a poor record of governance. But,the NDA failed to cash in on the widespread discontent fuelled by farmers suicides,a woefully inadequate power supply,sharp price rise,the failure of the monsoon,the mishandling of the Mumbai terror attack of 26/11 and grossly adequate infrastructure in what was once the richest state in the country. The NDA could not even take advantage of infighting and sabotage within the UPA ranks. Nor did it benefit from the presence of the newly created third front.
The results suggest that the BJP and Shiv Sena are losing their relevance in Maharashtra thanks to a leadership vacuum. The Shiv Sena-BJP alliance might choose to blame Raj Thackerays MNS,which ate into the NDAs vote share and acted as spoiler,for their defeat. But the remarkable rise of his less than four-year-old outfit is a direct consequence of Uddhav Thackerays failure to enthuse his flock,even though he had the backing of his father,Bal Thackeray. Uddhav may have conscientiously toured the entire state during the campaign,talking earnestly about development and urging people not to waste their vote by plumping for dalals (a reference to his cousin),but his sober message did not have the desired impact. The followers of a party built on sheer demagoguery and parochial passions preferred Rajs rabble-rousing and shrill appeal to the Marathi manoos.
Rajs fledgling MNS ended up with only a dozen seats,but it
ruined the prospects of the Shiv Sena and BJP in Mumbai,their traditional stronghold. Backed by non-Maharashtrian migrants,the UPA won more seats than the NDA in the countrys commercial capital,thanks to the MNS splitting the Marathi-speaking vote. Interestingly,after the results Rajs supporters made no attempt to hide their cordiality towards the Congress,strengthening the suspicion that the UPA allies had played no small role in building up Raj as a counter to Uddhav. Considering its relatively strong performance,in a post-Bal Thackeray era the MNS could end up overshadowing the parent party or even taking it over. The Congress could end up regretting its encouragement of a divisive regional force,even if it has worked to its short-term advantage.
If in the Sena the dilemma was rival claims for leadership in the Thackeray family,in the BJP there was a woeful dearth of leadership. Ever since the death of Pramod Mahajan the state unit has floundered without his organisational skills,networking and charisma. State party president Nitin Gadkari is a backroom boy,while Gopinath Munde lacks the stature to fill his late brother-in-laws shoes. The BJP leaders failed to generate enthusiasm among demoralised workers or cash in on what should have been key issues of the campaign. The partys central leadership,engrossed in its own war of attrition,provided no direction or support. Significantly there was no Delhi leader in charge of the state campaign,Munde being given sole responsibility. He misused his clout to ensure party tickets for both his daughter and his niece. In the bargain,the BJP lost the moral high ground to claim that it was the only party devoid of a dynastic dimension. Even neighbouring Chief Minister Narendra Modi was discouraged from visiting Maharashtra to campaign for the party.
For the BJP,in fact,it is a double whammy. The surprise results from Haryana suggest that if it had put its house in order and joined forces with its traditional ally,Om Prakash Chautala,it could well have ended up unseating Bhupinder Singh Hooda. As it is,while Chautalas INLD cashed in on popular discontent to tot up an impressive tally,the national party,floundering without a regional ally,put up a miserable show in the small,semi-urbanised state bordering Delhi.
The true winners in the Maharashtra elections are Chief Minister Ashok Chavan and the central Congress leadership,which backed him against a group of squabbling local chieftains. The Maratha satraps from the Congress and NCP,who viewed the elections as an opportunity to undercut the greenhorn chief minister and demonstrate their individual clout in roping in footloose MLAs,failed in their objective. That there are some 20 successful independent candidates indicates the infighting within the UPA. Almost all are either Congress or NCP rebels. Those in the UPA harbouring chief ministerial ambitions were banking on a hung assembly.
Former rivals Narayan Rane and Vilasrao Deshmukh,smarting
because both had been ignored by Chavan in the campaign,made common cause. In such a murky scenario,there were several prospective chief ministerial candidates. Rane,Deshmukh,Sushil Kumar Shinde,Manohar Joshi and even a lightweight,like the MPCC chief Manikrao Thakre,were ready to throw their hats in the ring. As it is,the decisive outcome put paid to their ambitions.
Another loser in this election is Sharad Pawar. The old Maratha warhorse,who has cherished prime ministerial ambitions for so long,now finds himself on a sticky wicket. He had banked on teaching a lesson to the Congress and Chavan,the son of his old antagonist S.B. Chavan. But the NCP was well behind the Congress in the numbers game. At the start of the assembly campaign the Congress,cocky over its triumph in the parliamentary poll,had made clear to the NCP that it was the senior partner and would call all the shots. With the results indicating that the Congress continues to have the edge over the NCP,Pawar,far from having the last laugh,will have to fight hard to retain his partys separate identity. After the results he conceded meekly that it was up to the Congress to decide who the chief minister would be. The NCP,after abandoning its objection to Sonia Gandhi as leader,now has no ideological difference with the mother party. Nor has the aging Pawar been able to establish a clear line of succession. Demands for the NCP to merge with the Congress are bound to grow.
coomi.kapoor@expressindia.com
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