The Baglihar hydroelectric project on the Chenab is once again flooded by controversy. Differences between India and Pakistan over the project were referred to a neutral expert (NE), as provided for by the arbitration clause of the Indus Treaty. After a year and half, the NE gave his findings in February 2007. By and large, he accepted the Indian explanations but recommended some minor design changes keeping Pakistan’s objections in mind. Pakistan was not wholly satisfied with the findings but having invoked the arbitration clause, it had to abide by the result. So why this fresh controversy?

Pakistan charges India with having unduly reduced the flows in the river. The initial one-time filling of a newly constructed reservoir is governed by specific provisions in the treaty. These provide for the filling of the reservoir by mutual discussion, failing which India can proceed to do so subject to two conditions: the filling (in the case of projects on the Chenab) must be done from June 21 to August 31; and the flow in the Chenab Main above Merala should not fall below 55000 cusec at any time. Pakistan says that these conditions have not been complied with.

The question is whether there was indeed a reduction in flows and if so, why. Though the relevant facts are not in the public domain, since I helped prepare the presentations to the NE, I can can hazard a guess. The point is that in accordance with the project design, there are no low-level outlets in the reservoir. The treaty stipulates high-level outlets, and one of Pakistan’s objections was that they were not high enough. The NE upheld the placement of the spillway gates but recommended a slight raising of the water-intake for the turbines. Be that as it may, the absence of low-level outlets necessarily means that as the reservoir is being filled, there can be no flow beyond the dam until the level of the outlets has been reached. It follows that for a short period the condition of a minimum flow of 55000 cusec cannot be met. In a sense, there is an internal contradiction in the treaty. If the condition of high placement of outlets is met, the minimum-flow condition cannot be met during the filling.

... contd.