The perception of competitive politics being an unending cricket match, with one side following the other in either batting or fielding, is cute, original and empirically untenable. Yet, the extent to which faith in cyclical inevitability has captivated India’s largest opposition is quite remarkable. For the past year or so, and despite the debacle in Uttar Pradesh, the leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party has been proceeding on the assumption that the UPA government’s innings is drawing rapidly to a close and that a general election will signal “our turn” at the crease. The anticipation of power has had a salutary effect on the party’s self-confidence. The existential uncertainties that paralysed the Sangh Parivar after the NDA’s unexpected defeat in the 2004 general election have given way to heady exuberance.

The belief that the next general election will see an NDA government with L.K. Advani at the helm is primarily based on the strength of anti-incumbency. Although the Manmohan Singh government has dispelled initial expectations of sudden death, there are serious doubts as to whether the Congress and its allies have managed to use power at the Centre to enlarge their political constituencies. The grand and over-hyped National Rural Employment Guarantee Programme has been crippled by bureaucratic sloth and faulty design. The extravagant Rs 60,000 crore debt waiver scheme, which aimed at bolstering Sonia Gandhi’s Lady Bountiful image, has become so horribly tangled in complications that it could become the proverbial party pooper. In time, the UPA may discover that its populist adventurism, including its Muslims-first posturing, has generated a backlash of unfulfilled hopes.

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