For a man so deluded about his past achievements, Robert Mugabe has a painfully clear understanding of his prospects at the polls. His rivals... “may win some seats”, he said recently, “but they cannot win the majority. Impossible.”

Few would gainsay him. Zimbabwe’s opposition movement is more vocal than in past years, but more divided. Its voters can expect systematic intimidation this Saturday... Constituencies have been redrawn in favour of the ruling Zanu (PF) party... There is not even a pretence of fair election coverage in the state media, and... voting, for millions, will take second place to the more urgent business of survival. This is why Mr Mugabe’s election forecast is likely to be accurate. It is a tragedy for Zimbabweans; it is also... a colossal failure of international diplomacy.

Surrounded by sycophants, Mr Mugabe may actually believe his claim to be a freedom fighter. He is in fact a wrecker on a par with Kim Jong Il. He has turned Africa’s second-strongest economy into a nation dependent on food aid... Life expectancy has tumbled from 60 years to 35... Unemployment stands at 80 per cent, and inflation, at more than 100,000 per cent, is the highest in the world...

The man responsible has shored up his domestic position with home-grown thuggery and Soviet-style kleptocracy. By razing the slum dwellings of some two million opposition supporters in 2005, he disenfranchised them... But he is also dependent on continued foreign acquiescence... His crimes have been ignored; his anti-colonial bombast has been endorsed, even though half a century out of date. Britain has tried not to dignify Mr Mugabe’s ranting with a response. Last year’s EU-AU summit was supposed to vindicate this strategy by letting others lead the condemnation... In the event, just four leaders of the European Union spoke up, and the silence from the African side was deafening.

... contd.