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Run up to the Loya Jirga
A
conversation with Afghan leader Hamid Karzai
Hamid
Karzai, Chairman of the Interim Afghan Administration, exudes a
sort of studied informality as he asks searching questions about
Pakistan, India, including Gujarat, in the course of an hour-long
conversation in the shade of a tree at one end of a large, rectangular
Bagh or garden, perfectly set in Kabul’s crisp spring.
Considering
that the world did not know him before he was sworn in last December,
he has developed a remarkable skill to engage a visiting journalist
in a wide ranging discussion on ideas (including Sanskrit, Lucknow
culture), all off the record, of course, before switching to the
interview format, expanding on the themes preoccupying him in governing,
holding the system together.
This
latter part entails traversing the bumpiest road yet until the emergency
Loya Jirga, the Grand Assembly of 1,501 of Afghan elders, including
160 women, meets in Kabul from June 10 to set up an Interim authority
by June 22, for the next two years when general elections will be
held.
Will
Karzai and his cabinet of 32 ministers survive scrutiny by the Loya
Jirga? Is that part of the agenda the grand assembly will consider?
Former King Zahir Shah, 87, who returned to Kabul last month, to
“live out” his last years in the country he once ruled,
will, as a venerated elder, open the emergency Loya Jirga. But will
he simply cut the ribbon? Or will he read out a brief script placing
before the Assembly the name of the prime minister and a short list
from among whom the one hundred and eleven (111) members of Parliament
will be selected?
After
all, the 1,501 members of the Jirga, to assemble at the Technical
Institute behind the Kabul Intercontinental hotel, can hardly be
expected to put forward individual proposals. That would be recipe
for chaos. Clearly an agreed minimum agenda will be placed before
the Assembly for approval. Will the elders simply “rubber stamp”
the proposal? This too would be a bit of a dream scenario in a country
so sharply divided along ethnic and tribal lines.
Under
the shadow of the US-led war on Al-Qaeda and the Taliban, it was
the Tajik-controlled Northern Alliance, particularly leaders from
the Panjsher Valley, who captured Kabul.
The
UN-sponsored Bonn conference on Afghanistan in the first week of
December was navigated deftly by United Nations Secretary-General
Kofi Annan’s Special Representative, Lakhdar Brahimi. It selected
Karzai to lead a 32-member government and gave key positions to
Tajik’s from the Panjsher Valley. Karzai and a host of others
in the cabinet are Pashtuns, who constitute at least 45 per cent
of the country’s 18 million population, but many of them are
from the Rome Group, part of the old Pashtun aristocracy which the
West is comfortable with but who have not been in the thick of battle
from Soviet times up to the defeat of Taliban.
How
many of these elements will be part of the Interim Authority to
be sworn in on June 22, at the end of the emergency Loya Jirga?
The charismatic Tajik leader, the late Ahmad Shah Massood, whose
photographs dominate important public spaces in Kabul, has been
officially declared the national hero. Defence Minister Fahim has
been elevated to the rank of Marshal. Will these be cited as reasons
to advance Pashtun representation past the Loya Jirga?
Moreover,
the Uzbek strongman Rashid Dostam remains something of an enigma,
controlling Mazar-e-Sharief and areas around. The gas and oil potential
in his area of influence, explored by the Soviets (but not fully
operational since) may fuel a centrifugal thrust.
But
Hamid Karzai is sanguine, “Dostam told me during my visit to
Mazar-e-Sharif on March 21 that he wished to be the central government’s
representative in the north.” Karzai is principally monitoring
behind-the-scenes moves leading up to the Loya Jirga, balancing
the cabinet, attending to law and order, focusing both on national
reconstruction and outlining a new policy for foreign investment.
So
intelligent has been Karzai’s man management and image projection,
that the former king singled him out for almost exuberant praise
in his statement on returning to Kabul? Will this support stand
him in good stead in retaining the job past the Loya Jirga?
Given
the constraints, Karzai has not been tardy playing a statesman-like
role in the region, not shying away even from the sensitive hydrocarbons
politics.
He
told me that President Niyazov of Turkmenistan was keen to hold
a meeting in Ashkabad where Pakistan’s General Musharraf, Karzai
and their respective petroleum experts would meet. The meeting was
scheduled for the first week of May but Gen. Musharraf’s referendum
pre-occupations have caused the crucial meeting to be rearranged
in the last week of May.
“Once
a gas pipeline comes through from Turkmenistan, Afghanistan to Pakistan,
India’s co-operation would be important”, he told me.
Karzai has already briefed New Delhi on the pipeline proposal.
The
promotion of this proposal would almost automatically accelerate
co-ordination between New Delhi and Teheran. An important Iranian
visit to New Delhi is on the cards. Chinese President Jiang Zemin’s
recent visit to Teheran and US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s
low key visit to Heart, joining Iran, last week are all stirring
up the diplomatic cauldron which must, somehow, also impact on the
coming Loya Jirga.
India
has, meanwhile, agreed to sell three used Airbuses to Kabul for
a mere seven million dollars. This is somewhat ironical because
by shunning Pakistani air space Indian diplomacy has effectively
blocked Indian access to Kabul and accelerated Kabul-Peshwar traffic.
When
I asked Karzai what he thought of Musharraf, his response was emphatic:
“I trust him entirely”.
I raised
the question of law and order outside Kabul, particularly around
areas close to the Pakistan border, he said, “Why don’t
you travel to Garbez, Pak tiya and see for yourself?”
Next
week I shall report on this delicious adventure.
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