Why all moves backfire in J&K

Neerja Chowdhury

We shall be bold and innovative designers of a future architecture of peace and prosperity for the entire South Asian region. So declared Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in his New Year musings from Kumarakom. His latest move to invite General Pervez Musharraf for talks to Delhi is surely bold, but will it herald peace for the region?

Each and every initiative taken by the government on Kashmir has fallen flat. Last year the Track-II players had readied Majid Dar, the deputy Commander of the Hizbul Mujahideen, for talks with the government. But the government failed to anticipate the reaction that might come from Syed Salahuddin, the chief of HM based in Pakistan. The move was stillborn.

The government initiated secret talks with the Hurriyat, but without adequately taking into confidence Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah. It should have been obvious that the National Conference, which fights a turf battle with the Hurriyat, would not take it lying down. The result was that Farooq’s autonomy agenda as well as the talks with the Hurriyat were both derailed at the same time.

Next, the unilateral ceasefire in the beginning of Ramazan was meant to generate goodwill in the Valley. Instead of striking while the iron was hot, the government took four long months to make up its mind that K.C.Pant would be its key interlocutor with the Kashmiri groups. The announcement came on the eve of Jaswant Singh’s visit to the US to meet President George Bush. The Pant card got trumped even before it was played.

Drift in policy is always costly. Not only did the last six months witness an increase in casualties both in the civilian as well as the armed forces, it also closed the ranks between the foreign militants and their local counterparts and the hardliners and the moderates. The ceasefire was supposed to drive a wedge between these groups. The mood in the Valley changed dramatically, and there is talk of the return to the 1989-90 situation.

The ceasefire initiative became counterproductive due to lack of coordination between the various departments of the government. The PM announced that the Hurriyat leaders could go to Pakistan. The Home Ministry objected to provide passport to Jamiat-e- Islami’s Syed Ali Geelani.

The whole controversy made Geelani a hero in the Valley, with even the foreign militants acknowledging his leadership, as he led pro-Pak rallies in the state. The move to sideline him backfired.

And now comes the move to invite Musharraf to Delhi. There are indications that New Delhi is mulling over the possibility of a summit meeting between the two leaders. It is believed to have figured during Jaswant Singh’s visit to Riyadh, and during Richard Armitage’s recent visit to Delhi. After their return from Srinagar, L.K. Advani and Jaswant Singh decided the twin initiative which was formalised at the lunch meeting with the PM. The withdrawal of the ceasefire determined the timing of the invitation to Musharraf.

Has adequate ground been prepared for the talks? Or was the move meant only to show to the world that the peace process is still on? The suddeness of the move has caught everyone unawares. Even the Foreign Office is dumb-founded. It was only yesterday that the government was trotting out reasons why India could not talk to Pakistan till it had stopped cross-border terrorism. There has been no warning, no preparation, no convincing reasons given for why suddenly it has changed its position. Neither was the cabinet taken into confidence, nor was the Opposition. Only Vajpayee informed Sonia Gandhi and some others before the decision was announced.

The stakes are very high for both Musharraf and Vajpayee. Vajpayee may not have an army breathing down his neck but we are living in a post-Kargil India and not a pre-Lahore scenario. After all, the service chiefs will be saluting a man responsible for sending hundreds of our jawans to their death.

The trouble is that all along adhocism has characterised the government’s entire approach to the Kashmir problem. It makes moves only to deflect either domestic or international pressure, possibly in the hope of buying time. That is, indeed, the crux of the problem and cause for worry. But today, it has to move forward or it will roll backwards. The Government must be clear which way is it headed.