Rebels’ cutting edge depends on Russian supply

GAURAV C. SAWANT

NEW DELHI, OCTOBER 18: ALTHOUGH the Northern Alliance is making advances into the Taliban-held territory, a decisive advance depends on getting much-needed military hardware, on its way from Russia and Iran. Russia and Iran have increased material, logistical and monetary support to the Northern Alliance forces who are wary of openly accepting US equipment in the wake of strong anti-US feeling among the Afghan people. According to sources, they are very suspicious of US’s motives.

‘‘The supplies that Russia and Iran are sending the Northern Alliance reaches them by train after crossing Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan onward to southern Tajikistan from where they are taken by road to northeastern Afghanistan. It takes almost six days to a week by train before another three to four day journey by road for the weapons and equipment to be taken across the Amu Darya (river) to the Northern Alliance strongholds,’’ sources said.

Although the supplies are routed mainly through Tajikistan, the onward journey is through difficult terrain where roads are closed during winters. Therefore it has to be pushed through now. ‘‘Kulyab city in Tajikistan was the logistics base for onward movement. Now the supplies are mainly from Eshkashem and Darwaz both passing through high mountains sealed off during winters,’’ sources said.

Apart from weapon systems the Northern Alliance also needs stores like blankets and jackets to deal with the severe winters. The Alliance troops needs to be in control at Kabul before the winter sets in but this may be unlikely if US delays its air strikes on frontline.

Both Iran and Russia have a keen interest in keeping the Northern Alliance well-equipped. Moreover, intelligence agencies feel that if it had not been for its soured relations with Iran, the US would definitely have provided arms and ammunition to the Northern Alliance.

Though India is not overtly providing weapons and ammunition to the Northern Alliance, it has a functional field hospital on the Afghan-Tajikistan border which provides treatment.

The Taliban forces are numerically stronger than the Alliance and better firepower and equipment are the only ways that the Alliance can hope to recapture lost territory. The Northern Alliance forces lack mortars, light field guns and ammunition for a sustained offensive.

According to intelligence inputs, the Alliance has asked for light aircraft and helicopters as well to speed up the mobility of men and equipment. They are expecting more T-55 tanks and armoured personnel carriers from the Russians.

According to conservative estimates, the weapons reserves being held by the opposition forces will not last them long in the wake of a sustained offensive against the Taliban militia. The Alliance is stocking up its war reserves so they can use it after the US air attacks on frontline Taliban forces.

‘‘The Alliance hopes to move in for the kill as Taliban forces disintegrate after the air strikes. But the Americans too are weighing their options regarding an alternative regime in Kabul,’’ sources added.