This polarisation is not healthy

Atal Bihari Vajpayee says the UP polls are not a referendum on the NDA government at the Centre. Rajnath Singh, on the other hand, feels their outcome will change national politics. The two statements appear contradictory but there is an element of truth in both.

The outcome of an election in a state, no matter how large or politically important, can only be a reflection of a party’s performance, if the same party is ruling at the Centre, but it can hardly be called a referendum. India is a large and diverse country. In 1977, even at the height of the anti-Emergency wave in North India, which swept the Congress out of power in Delhi for the first time, the South had voted for Indira Gandhi.

UP has been a trendsetter for national politics since independence. The Congress’ loss of power in Delhi has followed its loss of base in UP. The BJP became a national player after it captured the Lucknow ‘gaddi’. The Congress’ decline in UP also altered the North-South balance of power.

The outcome of the UP polls will influence the crucial presidential polls in July. Currently, the ruling combine and the Opposition are evenly placed and if this continues the next President is likely to be chosen through consensus. Neither side would like to risk a contest in such a situation. But the bargaining clout of the Opposition would increase if Mulayam Singh Yadav were to form the government in Lucknow and, as appears likely, the Congress comes to power in another three states. Alternatively, the BJP would have the upper hand if it can retain power in UP.

The real import of the UP polls lies in their impact on Vajpayee’s position. The results will decide how strong or weak the PM will be in the months to come. The exit polls for the first round of voting in UP have re-energised the BJP cadre. Exit polls are considered more reliable than opinion polls but in India they have proved unreliable either because people do not reveal the truth or because they are unscientifically designed or are biased. Often, the sample size is too small for a country of India’s diversity.

Vajpayee would become unstoppable if the BJP manages to romp home again, alone or in alliance with other parties. A tie-up with the BSP to form a government in Lucknow would mean the support of 14 more MPs in Delhi. It would also herald a social alliance between the upper castes and the Dalits in many parts of the country to the advantage of the BJP. All those in the race for the presidency need to watch these emerging alliances carefully. A Dalit, even in faraway Karnataka, had been electrified when Mayawati became the chief minister of UP. However, there are many in the BJP who would be loath to support a government headed by her given the past power-sharing experience with her. They have not forgotten that her last-minute volte-face was responsible for the fall of the Vajpayee ministry in 1999. They would prefer imposition of President’s rule in UP if they cannot form the government and if Mulayam Singh Yadav does not have the requisite numbers. This would give them and Mulayam, as the case may be, the time and opportunity to break the BSP. It is an open secret that many of the BSP candidates have been funded by the BJP and the SP.

What the BJP fears most is an alliance between Mulayam and the Congress which might make Mulayam hostage to the Congress at the Centre. That is probably why Vajpayee fired a salvo against Sonia Gandhi and her foreign origins, when the Congress really doesn’t count for much in UP this time. But even with 30 MLAs, it can play a crucial role in UP and at the Centre.

A defeat in UP does not necessarily mean an immediate fall of the Vajpayee ministry. The allies, particularly those like Chandrababu Naidu, who fear a Congress on the ascent will cling even more closely to the PM and not do anything which might bring on an election. Sharad Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan and Maneka Gandhi have been sitting on the fence since they were moved to less consequential ministries. But the numbers do not gel on the other side. Mulayam would be loath to support a Sonia-led government for it would undercut his own roots in UP in the Lok Sabha elections. Sonia Gandhi too may not like to repeat 1999 and may prefer to allow the BJP to go downhill and wait for the Lok Sabha elections in two years to have a clear mandate.

In all probability, losing UP would lead to a buffeting around of the PM rather than a fall of his government. Whether it is the allies or the Sangh Parivar, everyone would demand their pound of flesh from a weakened PM. The formation of a BJP-led government in UP would strengthen the PM.

However, the weakening or the strengthening of the PM would only be temporary. Nobody knows how events will shape up and no one is in control. To add to the confusion, extraordinary events keep taking place — Kargil, September 11, IA hijacking, etc.

The nation is just muddling along and the people are getting more cynical about its capacity to deliver. No wonder reports from UP suggest a total polarisation of votes on caste and community lines. A weaker or stronger Vajpayee cannot alter this direction that the country’s politics is taking.