With the general, with hope

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s good fortune on the foreign policy front seems endless. But then Dr Singh has been willing to undertake diplomatic risks, much like the economic reforms he had initiated in the early 1990s. As the US Congress finalises the legislation on civilian nuclear cooperation with India this week, this could be the political pay-off time for Dr Singh. But his diplomatic boldness has not been limited to the United States.

While the nuclear deal signed with US President George W. Bush has generated an intense domestic debate since July 2005, Dr Singh’s initiative to resolve the problem of Jammu and Kashmir has not got the attention it deserves. In the end, his attempt to settle the Kashmir dispute and normalise relations with Pakistan could turn out to be far more consequential for India and the region than the nuclear deal with the US.

General Musharraf’s latest proposal on J&K — presented in an interview to an Indian TV channel — has elicited the question whether there was anything new. But the more important question is whether Musharraf’s ideas will take us down the road towards a reasonable settlement of the Kashmir dispute.

Just as the nuclear deal with the US has liberated India from being an outcaste in the global nuclear order, a settlement with Pakistan on J&K could provide the basis for a historic post-partition political reconciliation in the subcontinent. Also, as in the debate on the nuclear deal, there is the real danger that sections of the Indian establishment and the political classes might make heavy weather out of Musharraf’s proposals.

This is but natural, given the scale and scope of the political change involved in India’s nuclear policy as well as the approach to Pakistan and the dispute over J&K. Yet the prime minister has every reason to press ahead with negotiations on Kashmir. For, he recognises a simple fact that the Indian establishment tends to ignore: the final settlement of J&K dispute is in India’s interest.

As a prudent risk-taker, the PM is aware that the huge uncertainty in negotiating with Pakistan has been significantly reduced over the years, first by Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who initiated the talks on Kashmir, and then by General Musharraf, who has begun to demonstrate considerable flexibility on Jammu and Kashmir.

Although Musharraf has had the tendency to shoot from the hip on Kashmir in front of television cameras in the past, his latest remarks must be assessed for their own inherent merit and timing. First, his latest proposals come in the wake of a sustained back channel negotiation on Kashmir between New Delhi and Islamabad over the last many months.

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