Jasjit Singh

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 China’s successful shooting down of its old satellite by a ground-based missile marks a major step in the maturing of its offensive capabilities in space, especially when compared to our ‘slow march’ in utilising space for our defence. For example, China launched 24 indigenous satellites during the past five years, compared to our 10. It currently has at least 9 satellites dedicated to military use (besides another 63-odd dual-use satellites) compared to our one experimental satellite for limited defence use.

The reality that space capabilities have been visibly at the root of global military superiority and economic-commercial activities in peace and war for more than two decades seems not to have been noticed by policy planners in India.

China’s policies provide for an integrated approach to civil and military capabilities and their optimum utilisation. Compared to this, our space programme continues to remain almost entirely devoted to civil uses. The Chinese space programme for civil use is managed by China National Space Administration; and space capability building and its use for military purposes is controlled by its Central Military Commission, the highest decision-making body for developing and employing China’s rapidly growing military power.

The Chinese Air Force is responsible for managing the space programme and its utilisation. We have not thought it fit to even have a member of our defence establishment, leave alone an air force representative, on our space commission or ISRO. The ministry of defence has been blatantly ignoring the repeated recommendations of the bipartisan standing committee on defence of Parliament for the past eight years to create space capabilities and air force structures for national defence. But then, unlike the emphasis in China on the balanced development of economy and defence, the five-year plans of our ministry of defence have rarely received funding from across the road.

In its Defence White Paper of December 2004 the Chinese government had spelt out a clear objective of winning war through the command of the seas and of the air while modernising its nuclear-missile forces. Its massive lead in its military space capabilities has started to worry even the US as indicated by the Pentagon’s reports to the Congress in recent years. A robust space capability is critical for a credible nuclear strategy for early warning, rapid communications, command and control, target intelligence, targeting, and so on. But it has been acquiring enormous importance even for conventional wars. The RMA (Revolution in Military Affairs), Network Centric Warfare, etc. (or the Chinese term of “informationalisation”) that we hear and talk so much about, rely heavily on space capabilities.

The rapid strides China has been making in space may be judged from the fact that its “long march” rockets made two-dozen consecutive successful launches during the past five years; and the total consecutively successful indigenous launches during the past 10 years was 46 (compared to our 15)! It is developing newer generations of more powerful launch vehicles with 120-ton thrust and 50-ton thrust rockets. During the past five years China “independently developed and launched 22 different types of man-made satellites” thus acquiring new capabilities, mostly for military uses. It has added two more types of satellites to the existing series of four types. Its ocean satellites series are expected to enter service soon. Its 15-year plan visualises deployment of all-weather day-night observation satellites for civil and military roles. It is known to build small and micro satellites. It has acquired the capabilities to launch manned space flights.

What does all this add up to? At the fundamental level, space power has become a pre-condition to control of land, sea and air power. China today has a total of 72 satellites in space compared to 16 of ours in orbit. China’s anti-satellite capability is maturing. Chinese space-based laser development is designed to knock out the adversary’s command, control, communications and intelligence capabilities. China has, for the first time, acknowledged its efforts to build anti-missile defences. Coupled with anti-satellite capabilities, this threatens to marginalise if not nullify our nuclear deterrent in the future.

In a major expansion of its strategic nexus with Pakistan, especially in nuclear and missile areas, China has undertaken joint research, manufacture and application of small multi-mission satellites to be launched this year in collaboration in space with “Islamic” countries of Pakistan, Iran, and Bangladesh besides South Korea, Mongolia and Thailand under the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organisation established at Beijing in 2005 which includes Indonesia and Turkey in addition to the above countries.

The writer, a retired air commodore, is director, Centre for Air Power Studies