Crown doesn’t pinch

There is talk of anti-incumbency in the air in Gujarat. Caste and community groups like the Patidars, Kolis, Tribals, OBCs, Brahmins, Muslims, Dalits as well as Sangh Parivar outfits like the VHP, RSS, and BKS are seen declaring their resentment against the Modi-led BJP dispensation. Analyses in the electronic and print media show that the BJP’s dominance in Gujarat is shaken and declining. How realistic is this scenario?

The CSDS conducted a countrywide opinion poll, interviewing 18,750 voters in 18 states in the first week of September 2007. This survey was sponsored by The Indian Express and CNN-IBN. In Gujarat, a total of 1,075 voters in 48 polling stations of 12 assembly constituencies were interviewed.

When asked about their being satisfied or dissatisfied with Modi’s rule of the last five years in the state, 66 per cent reported being satisfied and 19 per cent were dissatisfied. Besides, 38 per cent voters in Gujarat have chosen Modi instead of Vajpayee, Advani, Jaitley and Rajnath Singh as the BJP leader for the next LS poll. When asked to name one leader from different parties as prime minister of the country, Modi was the second highest choice of 23 per cent Gujarat voters as against Sonia Gandhi who ranked at the top with 24 per cent. These, by any measure, are formidable ratings for an incumbent leader and party.

The overall gap in the vote share between the BJP and Congress, which had narrowed in the 2004 Lok Sabha poll by 3 per cent, has once again expanded to its earlier decade-old position of 10 per cent. Secondly, the answers to the question: “... if polls are held tomorrow, which party will you vote for...” yielded some interesting revelations. The BJP’s strongest social support group, comprising of the Patidars, has not only remained intact but their support has increased from 82 per cent for the BJP in the post-Godhra 2002 poll and 75 per cent in the 2004 Lok Sabha poll to 83 per cent as reported in this survey.

Also, the much hyped threats of withdrawal of support to the Modi-led BJP by the coastal Kolis and Brahmins are not supported by the survey data. Actually, it is the tribal voters who have changed their party preference in a big way. In the 2002 assembly poll, 34 per cent tribals voted for the BJP as against 49 per cent for the Congress. In the 2004 LS poll, 48 per cent tribals voted for the BJP as against 46 per cent for the Congress. The present survey shows that the tribal support to BJP has slid, as only 27 per cent will vote for the BJP and 69 per cent for the Congress.

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