Related Stories IPL's USPRaj T, like CongressHeir loomsA thought for GowdaA new middle class?

 Former Gujarat chief minister and now godfather of BJP rebels, Keshubhai Patel, returned from Delhi empty-handed early this month. During his discussions with L.K. Advani, Rajnath Singh and Arun Jaitely, he was told curtly that Modi is the supreme leader of the party in Gujarat; Patel is welcome to stay on and wait for his time, but nothing more than that.

What makes Modi strong, anti-incumbency — a strong rebellion among Patel community, who have been the backbone of BJP’s support base, notwithstanding?

•In July 2007, Modi launched the Society for Creation of Opportunities through Proficiency in English (SCOPE), which aims to make 5 lakh youth proficient by 2010. Modi wants Gujaratis to speak the “language that the world speaks.”

•A good number of BJP leaders from Patel community are vying for Modi’s blood. Among the many reasons citied is this by a veteran rebel: “In 2003, the government amended the electricity act and made unauthorised usage a criminal offence, defined in very stringent terms — for instance, if a farmer is using a one HP pump against a license for a half HP, that is a criminal offence even if he is paying for it. In Saurashtra alone, 77,000 such cases were detected since January 2005. 5000 people face criminal charges and 2200 people are in jail. Most of them are Patel farmers and we will not forgive Modi for that.”

•In a well attended rally of BJP rebels in Rajkot in mid-September, speakers targeted Modi for having sold off Gujarat to Reliance, Advani and Essar and also for turning out to be “Noor Mohammad Modi under the protection of Lal Mohammad Advani”.

Narendra Modi has altered the politics of Gujarat more fundamentally than it has been thought of. And it goes beyond Hindutva, which is a settled issue now. Confident of support, Modi’s Hindu personality is now understated. Instead, he has expanded his wings to restructure government and politics in the state in such a fashion that he knows best how to negotiate it.

First, he broke the traditional patronage network of his own party, the BJP. Through the 1970s and ‘80s, the Congress built the KHAM — Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, Muslim — social alliance in the state, leaving out the Patels, who were economically powerful, mobile and identity-conscious. The BJP’s emergence as the biggest party in the state was with Patels at its nucleus, surrounded by segments from all castes, including tribals. It helped the BJP that numerous religious cults in the state created a Hindu consciousness in the state that became the superstructure for the party. With the replacement of Keshubhai Patel by Modi in 2001 October, Patels began to lose the huge leverage that they had on state power. In trading and enterprises such as diamond polishing and small manufacturing, Patels are very influential and an economic class they have been with the BJP. In return, they tried to further their economic interests. But Modi’s administrative measures and his management of the party dismantled this mechanism — the electricity act amendment and its impact on the community is a stark example. The losers will oppose Modi.

That does not necessarily make Modi a loser. Modi unveiled a vision for Gujarat that is centered on huge industrial and power projects, SEZs, ports, shipbuilding and refineries. New MoUs and investments are announced every other day and the big capital in general is bullish on Gujarat. Modi says 25 lakhs new jobs will be created by all these investments. Gujarat already has a formidable urban middle class, with 38 per cent of the population classified as urban. Modi is upgrading the middle class dreams — illustrated vividly in the English language drive. Government is sensitive to their aspirations and demands — for instance, government measures seek to keep edible oil prices low. There is a reason why Saurashtra Oil Millers Association (SOMA) has declared support for BJP rebels. This new middle class is a potent political constituency that cuts across castes. “In a single family of Patels, one brother could be a farmer, another an engineer and yet another an NRI. The farmer may have turned against Modi, but the engineer can very well be a Modi-supporter. The NRI would want Modi to be acceptable to the Americans also,” explains Achyut Yagnik, a political commentator.

And Modi has not lost sight of the caste element either. He has managed to build a network of caste-community notables around him, including from among the Patels. But the BJP has not been able to develop its own tribal leadership — potentially a major roadblock for the party in this election.

This new middle class is very comfortable with a strong Hindu political identity and Modi is therefore all the more their leader. But the necessity of expanding acceptability, particularly among the powerful Gujarati NRIs cannot be overstated — a riot-torn region is, after all, not exactly an investor’s destination. Modi therefore understates his Hinutva credentials where as the traditional elite-turned-rebels are abusing him as a Muslim!

The BJP leadership is banking completely on Modi’s ability to mobilise the young middle class enamored of the new economy and conscious of its Hindu identity. If he wins, what will change the most will be BJP’s internal power dynamics.