Ever since the Congress lost power to the Janata Party in the 1977 assembly elections, Himachal Pradesh has come to have a stable two-party system. Till then, the Jana Sangh was only a marginal force in the hill state; but once it formed Government as a major constituent of the Janata conglomerate, it used this foothold to expand and consolidate its support, to the detriment of the other co-sharers of power. When the Janata Party disintegrated in 1980, the Jana Sangh, in its new incarnation as the BJP, got away with most of its organisational edifice. This provided a solid ground to the party to emerge as a serious contender for power, on its own. Thereafter, in each successive election power has been alternating between the Congress and the BJP, often by very large margins. The crucial question in the forthcoming elections is: will this happen again or will the ruling party reverse this trend by retaining power?
This question is worth considering because the electorate in HP, for obvious reasons, votes that party to power in the state which is ruling at the Centre. This factor is likely to help the Congress. However, this advantage may be offset by the incumbency factor.
Two issues are going to be significant in these polls: massive unemployment and rising prices. While the paradox of the concomitant rise of unemployment and literacy has generated disillusionment among literate but unemployed youth, the pinch of rising prices is felt by all, but more by the poor.
The ruling party is likely to counter the BJP allegations by highlighting its achievements. According to recent surveys, in a country-wide rating, the state has been ranked as the number one in elementary education and very high in health-care, infrastructure development and good governance. The ruling party will also highlight the unprecedented spread of secondary and higher education institutions in the state, the issue of their poor quality notwithstanding.
