Musharraf maelstrom and India

It would have served no purpose if India had chosen to be judgmental about the depressing, but not entirely surprising turn of events in Pakistan on Saturday. The US and its western allies would surely return to business as usual after the immediate criticism of the army’s almost casual reassertion of total control over the state of Pakistan.

Given the historical burden, New Delhi is condemned to deal with whoever is in power in Islamabad; India also has no incentive to disturb the current relative tranquillity in the bilateral relationship. India is fully conscious of another tragic but enduring reality about Pakistan. The external geopolitical significance of our western neighbour has always taken precedence over the need for a more representative political system within. The Pakistan army’s extended dominance over civil society lay in leveraging its capacity to make a difference on a major global issue.

It is the recognition of this basic truth that allowed Musharraf to ignore the relentless pressure from the US to avoid the imposition of emergency. In August the Bush administration had apparently prevailed over Musharraf on the question of suspending constitutional rule and successfully coaxed him into a political deal with the long exiled leader of the People’s Party, Benazir Bhutto.

Although India might be unwilling to admit it, this war against Islamic extremism across the Durand Line between Pakistan and Afghanistan could redefine the security politics of the subcontinent. Our political class has been too immersed in an increasingly trivialised nuclear debate to notice the profound transformation occurring along the Durand Line and its implications for India. The security establishment in New Delhi, in turn, finds it difficult to overcome the inertia of the recent preoccupations on J&K and cross-border...