Arun Shourie puts the Budget to the aam aadmi test and argues why the UPA fails miserably

One problem is that while the Government committed itself in that new scripture – The National Common Minimum Programme – to doubling the proportion of GDP that is devoted to social sectors like health and education, in fact, as NC Saxena, member of the UPA’s National Advisory Board, points out, the proportion continues to hover around half the pledged targets.

But that is the lesser problem. The even more debilitating one has been much in the admonitions of the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister. In his Budget speech for 2005/06, Chidambram drew pointed attention to this: ‘At the same time,’ he told the Treasury Benches that were cheering his announcements of higher outlays, ‘I must caution that outlays do not necessarily mean outcomes. The people of the country are concerned with outcomes. The Prime Minister has repeatedly emphasized the need to improve the quality of implementation and enhance the efficiency and accountability of the delivery mechanism.’

So what did he propose to do? ‘During the course of the year, together with the Planning Commission, we shall put in place a mechanism to measure the development outcomes of all major programmes,’ he told Parliament. ‘We shall also ensure that programmes and schemes are not allowed to continue indefinitely from one Plan period to the next without an independent and in-depth evaluation.’ Given that activists were said to have the ear of the Highup, Chidambram added, ‘Civil society should also engage Government in a healthy debate on the efficiency of the delivery mechanism.’

Two years went by, little happened. Chidambram returned to the theme in his Budget of 2007/08. ‘There is no dearth of schemes,’ he told Parliament, ‘there is no dearth of funds. What needs to be done is to deliver the intended outcomes.’

The Prime Minister has been proclaiming the desideratum just as frequently and even more emphatically. ‘We have generated adequate resources in the last three years for use in social sector without sacrificing fiscal prudence,’ he told the ‘Roundtable on India’ organised by The Economist in March 2007. ‘However, we cannot spend our way to prosperity and having tangible outcomes is, therefore, as important as increasing outlays. This is the single biggest concern of our government today and we have to address this issue if we need greater returns on our social investments.’ And a few months later, in November, 2007, he told the full meeting of the Planning Commission, the Gross Budgetary Support provided for in the 11th Plan is almost double what it was in the 10th Plan. More than that ‘the architecture for inclusive growth’ has been laid out, the ‘basic elements’ of that architecture ‘are now fully in place.’ ‘This is a matter of satisfaction and indeed of pride,’ he said. ‘For the next few years, the emphasis must be on ensuring that these programmes deliver what they promise. We must work purposefully to realise the socio-economic transformation the Plan seeks to achieve.’

And what is happening on the ground? After all, these worthies are not consultants to Government. They are the ones directing it. The answer can be gleaned by picking up any one of what Chidambram calls ‘the flagship schemes’ of this Government.

If this is the flagship…

‘The object is to guarantee 100 days of employment in a year to one able-bodied person in every poor household,’ Chidambram told the cheering MPs during his Budget speech for 2004/05 as he explained the Government’s commitment to the poor. So, what was he going to do? Pending legislation, the Food for Work Programme is being extended to 150 districts.

And where is the money to come from? Chidambram’s solution was one that has become the hallmark of this Government: ‘Allocations under different schemes will be pulled together to support the Food for Work Programme,’ he declared. There are substantial funds totaling over Rs. 6,000 crore under SGRY, SGSY, SJSRY, REGP and PMRY.’ A typical stratagem: if there is one big programme, split it into five and announce five path-breaking, closer-to-the people initiatives; if there are five programmes, club them, and announce one historic initiative! In either event, rename them – giving them one of the two permissible names.

In the 2005/06 Budget, while announcing that he was increasing the allocation for this programme to Rs. 11,000 crore, Chidambram correctly noted that there were two components to the allocation – a cash component and a food component.

By the 2006/07, the commitment had got altered, a word got slipped in: while the original commitment was to ‘guarantee 100 days of employment in a year to one able-bodied person in every poor household,’ the commitment now became to guarantee 100 days of employment in a year to one able-bodied person in every rural household. As for allocation, Chidambram said, ‘In the current year, under a clutch of schemes including the Food For Work programme, a sum of Rs. 11,700 crore is expected to be spent on rural employment.’ A few sentences later, the figure was given as 11,300 crore. And there was to be in addition, Rs. 3,000 crore under the Sampoorna Gramin Rozgar Yojna (SGRY).

In the Budget for 2007/08, the scheme was expanded from 200 districts to 330, and the allocation was increased to Rs. 12,000 crore, plus another Rs. 2,800 crore for (SGRY) for rural employment in districts not covered by NREGS.

In this new Budget, Chidambram proclaims, the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme ‘has proved a historic measure of empowerment of Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, and, especially, women’; that the allocation for it will be raised to Rs. 16,000 crore, and that it will be rolled out to all 596 rural districts of India.

In a note that he has sent to all the Highups, NC Saxena punctures the balloon. First, he points out, since this Government took office, the allocation for rural employment has actually fallen! While Chidambram has been parading financial outlays, he has forgotten to mention what has been happening to that other component of outlays on this programme, the food component: this, Saxena shows, was sixty eight lakh tonnes in 2005/06; it fell to twenty four lakh tonnes in 2006/07; and this year, it was just a little more than seven lakh tonnes till Novemebr, 2007, and may not reach even fifteen lakh tonnes by end-March 2008. Converting these figures into cash, Saxena points out, the outlay by the central Government on wage employment schemes has come down from Rs. 18,406 crore in 2005/06 to Rs. 15,000 crore.