With the assembly elections just months away, Jammu and Kashmir’s politics is heating up and all the three major mainstream contenders — the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), its partner Congress and the opposition National Conference (NC) — have already launched their poll campaigns. Unlike the last elections, the dilemma of the 2008 assembly polls is, however, clear: no party has an agenda and a slogan to attract public support.

The new realities in both India and Pakistan, in fact, have shifted the political discourse in the Valley, and mainstream political parties have already started repositioning their agendas to fit in the day-to-day concerns of the population. Thus employment and development are becoming the main poll planks across party lines while the levels of political bitterness and rivalry have returned to pre-militancy electioneering.

There are many reasons for this. For the first time since the emergence of militancy, there are clear signals from Pakistan accommodating the mainstream political process. The recent statement of the prime minister of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir, Sardar Ateeq Khan, supporting the election process in Kashmir is, in fact, one of many indications from across the border that suggest a change in Pakistani policy, at least towards the elections. The statement from the co-chairperson of the PPP, Asif Ali Zardari, and the sidelining of the Kashmir issue in the recent poll manifestoes of almost all the Pakistani political parties too provided a new space to the mainstream actors here. This Pakistani shift began with the events of 9/11 and that change was immediately exploited by the PDP in the 2002 elections when they emerged as a strong Kashmir-centric political party, hijacking the moderate separatist agenda and thus winning a major chunk of assembly constituencies in Kashmir.

After the 2002 assembly polls, the Pakistani establishment exhibited a reconciliatory policy shift towards the mainstream political leaders of Kashmir — a phenomenon which was unimaginable just a few years ago. This included a warm welcome to the president of the opposition NC, Omar Abdullah, and even to the second rung leadership of the PDP and NC. In fact, both Abdullah and the PDP president, Mehbooba Mufti, are scheduled to visit Islamabad to attend a Pugwash conference later this month. The Pakistani establishment has also distanced itself from the hardcore separatist leader, Syed Ali Shah Geelani, and has rather embraced Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, whose Hurriyat Conference has come up as a moderate separatist force with substantial acceptance in New Delhi.

The statement coming from the militant leadership based in Pakistan, regarding their commitment not to use violence to enforce a poll boycott, too helped boost the poll process. The only cadre-based political party among Kashmiri separatists — the Jamaat-e-Islami — too has recently distanced itself from poll boycott, further substantiating the hope that the forthcoming elections will be fiercely contested. And if Pakistan and the militant leadership continue to follow their public posture of not using violence to scare people away, it will, in fact, add spice to the contest. The mainstream political groups in Kashmir have used the militancy and poll boycott as a strategy to sail through in different parts of the valley in previous elections. But this year, the contests will be much more open, expanding the voting beyond the traditional support bases. For example, the traditional boycott constituency of Srinagar city and the urban townships across the Valley will spring new surprises if people come out in big numbers to vote.

The sharp divide in the Congress on its relationship with alliance partner PDP, the J&K Congress’s affinity with the opposition NC and the emergence of new political groups, all set to jump into the poll fray in Kashmir, too could change the contours of poll contests here. The new PCC president and Union minister, Saif-ud-din Soz, has cordial relations with the PDP while Chief Minister Azad and his close associates in the party have developed a relationship with the NC.

The NC has its own problems. Though the single largest party in the legislative assembly, it has neither managed to work out an interesting poll plank nor has it allowed itself to gain from the anti-incumbency factors. Besides, the party’s old guard is pulling it backwards rather than allowing its young leadership to create a vibrant political discourse.

The recent split in the PDP, when one of its founder leaders — the Tangmarg MLA and former minister, Ghulam Hassan Mir — parted ways with the Sayeeds and launched his own political party is an indicator of a new phenomenon. The clout wielded by the third front in Kashmir — the People’s Democratic Front, which was set up by a group of independent legislators after the 2002 elections — in both the Mufti Mohammad Sayeed and Ghulam Nabi Azad-led administrations has encouraged independents and new political parties to join the fray.

There are subtle indications that the People’s Conference leader, Sajjad Lone, too is weighing his plans to join the election process. Lone could be a substantial factor in Kupwara district in particular while his party has support bases in Baramulla and Bandipore districts as well. And if Lone shuns the routine separatist boycott, it will change several political equations, especially those in north Kashmir.

Therefore the expectation that the next coalition may need more than two parties.

muzamil.jaleel@expressindia.com