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US financial crisis will not derail India growth story: George Soros
New York, April 14 : Showering praise on the reform process led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as well as the Ambani brothers for their contributions to the Indian economy, legendary investor George Soros has said that the US financial crisis would not have much impact on the country’s growth story.
Dubbing the ongoing global financial crisis the biggest since the Great Depression of the 1930s, Soros noted that the dynamic developments being witnessed by economies like India might still not be disrupted.
The billionaire investor has made these observations in his latest book — The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means — whose electronic version is currently being sold over the Internet. The book’s print edition would be launched on May 19.
Noting that there are no grounds for predicting a prolonged period of credit contraction or economic decline in the world, Soros said that there are countervailing forces at work. “China, India and some oil-producing countries are experiencing dynamic developments which may not be significantly disrupted by the financial crisis and a recession in the US,” he says.
Putting India on a higher trajectory than China in terms of an investment destination, Soros says the rise of the Ambani brothers is emerging as the most spectacular one. He said the recession in America itself would be cushioned by an improvement in the current account deficit of that country. However, a recession in the US, coupled with the resilience of China, India and some oil nations, would “reinforce the decline in the power and influence of the US”.
Still, he feels that India’s stock market may fall in the short term. “I expect the Indian economy to perform well, although after its stellar performance, the stock market may be vulnerable to correction,” he says. “I visited India at Christmas time in 2006 and I was even more positively impressed from an investment point of view than with China because India is a democracy with the rule of law. Moreover, it was technically easier to invest in India than in China,” Soros says.
“There is a shortage of qualified labour, and profit margins are hurt by the appreciation of the currency. But the dynamics have spread to the rest of the economy,” he adds. “The most spectacular has been the rise of the Ambani brothers. When their father (Dhirubhai Ambani), the founder of Reliance Industries, died, the brothers divided his empire among them and are now trying to outdo each other,” he says.
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