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Global slowdown unlikely to hit country’s financial sector: RBI

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ENS Economic Bureau Posted: Apr 17, 2008 at 2344 hrs IST
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MUMBAI, April 16: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Y V Reddy has said at the World Leaders’ Forum meet in New York that the turbulence in financial markets and institutions, particularly in the US, has raised concerns about a possible global contagion. “The money, Government securities and foreign exchange markets have been stable in India and, in our view, they may not be vulnerable in terms of direct and first-round effects,” he averred. The Indian equity markets, which often reflect global trends, have been volatile in recent months and that has had some impact on changing sentiments, he explained. “We have a bank-dominated financial sector and banks have a strong capital base,” he pointed out.

“In our assessment, the Indian financial sector is likely to be less affected by the contagion than most other EMEs, in respect of first-round or direct effects,” Reddy said. Like most of the rest of the world, India has by and large experienced benign inflationary conditions, averaging around 5.2 per cent since fiscal 2004-05. “However, at this juncture, both domestic output and prices are under some pressure due to the recent global developments with regard to the prices of food, fuel and metals, and the turbulence in the financial markets,” Reddy said.

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Referring to the current turbulence in the markets, he said that India has not been contributing to global macroeconomic imbalances “though it has a stake in how the issues get resolved in the near future.” He also pointed out that India enjoyed annual average real GDP growth of over 8.7 per cent in the last four years.

Reddy admitted that inflationary pressures have turned out to be more than the expectations and indicated that some steps may be taken in the April 29 annual credit policy to rein in soaring prices. “We anticipated some inflationary pressures but they turned out to be more. We have to see that aggregate demand management is consistent with supply side initiatives,” he said.

“We expect to make an announcement on April 29,” he said. “Definitely, the level of Inflation is unacceptable to us. It is higher than our tolerance limit.” The regulator is slated to come out with its annual credit policy on April 29, which many believe would tighten money supply to tame the inflation rate that soared to a 40-month high of 7.41 per cent towards the close of last fiscal.

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