: Whatever else he got wrong, George Bush made one enormous strategic breakthrough when he repaired ties with India to counter China’s phenomenally growing weight in the world, says Bill Emmott, former editor of ‘The Economist’. Bush’s ‘Nixon moment’ acknowledged that the future arena of world affairs is indisputably Asia. In his new book ‘Rivals: How The Power Struggle Between China, India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade’, Emmott argues that rather than confronting the West, these three Asian powers, warily eyeing each other and establishing new equations, will place each other at the centre of things, and the economic growth and integration of the region will be the single biggest and most beneficial development of the 21st century. Amulya Gopalakrishnan caught up with him in Delhi for an interview
•China and India both have a sense of manifest destiny in this emerging world, but Japan is somewhat unexpected — one tends to think of it as a place that’s had its moment.
Yes, I remind people that Japan still exists! It continues to wield power and influence as the world’s second largest economy, and I think its slide will be reversed soon. Japan led the ‘flying geese pattern’ of export-led industrial development; very high levels of investment and gradually, lower-end industries shifting to other countries as living standards in Japan rose. China has soared on the same path, largely. India, of course, follows the model though unlike Japan and China, the Government is less of a clear guiding force for the economy. Japan has to deal with an ageing population and rising inequality — because the poor have gotten poorer, unlike American inequality. But those wages will rise again. It’s a natural survival instinct, and the fear of China has really spurred the political reform process and led it to make overtures towards India. India is Japan’s largest recipient of foreign aid, it has pumped in money for Delhi’s Metro, the industrial corridor, they want India included in East Asia groupings. It’s all part of balance of power tactics. And it’s also in India’s interests to expand technology and trade links, and military ties with Japan, given its reluctance to appear too close to the US.
Amulya Gopalakrishnan
