Given the obstacles that face her, a sweep by Clinton on Tuesday is one outcome that could, to borrow a phrase from Obama, change the world, or at least begin to. “That’s a sign that she is gaining momentum in the race,” said Ron Klain, a Democratic consultant who has not taken sides. How much such a result would change the race would depend on the contours of her victories.
If Obama loses in Indiana because of white blue-collar support for Clinton it would be the third time in a row, after Ohio and Pennsylvania, that he has lost a big state because of an inability to win over enough of those kinds of voters. Clinton has argued that those losses in a primary augur poorly for Obama in the fall; historically that is debatable, but another defeat at the hands of middle-class white voters in Indiana would add to the perception that he could lose in the general election.
The race at this point is at least as much about superdelegates as it is about voters in the remaining primary states, and a double Clinton victory could bolster her argument to superdelegates that Obama may struggle in November against Senator John McCain, the likely Republican nominee. One thing to keep in mind: the next contest is a week from Tuesday in West Virginia, another state where the demographics would seem to favour Clinton.
Obama wins North Carolina and Indiana
A double Obama victory would almost certainly mean lights out for the Clinton campaign. “That would signal the end of the Clinton campaign,” said Jerry Meek, the chairman of the North Carolina Democratic Party, who has not endorsed anyone in the race. “I don’t see how she could continue.” It is difficult to envision what her argument would be to stay in the race should that happen. More than that, Obama would no doubt encourage superdelegates, many of whom have been holding back to see how the voting plays...
