Obama gains, all uphill for Hillary now

For Obama, the outcome came after a brutal period in which he was on the defensive over the inflammatory comments of his former pastor. That he was able to hold his own under those circumstances, should allow him to make a case that he has proved his resilience in the face of questions about race, patriotism and political mettle.

Beating Obama in Indiana, a state he had once been confident of winning, was an achievement for Clinton. But it was hardly the kind of strong victory she posted in Pennsylvania and Ohio. And when paired with his comfortable victory in North Carolina — which Obama pointedly described in his victory speech as “a big state, a swing state”— it hardly seemed enough for Clinton to convince superdelegates to rally around her candidacy.

Indeed, Obama may have widened his delegate lead over Clinton, an outcome with mathematic and political resonance.

She was unable on Tuesday to build her base of support substantially beyond the white, working-class voters who had sustained her for the last month. That will not be lost on the superdelegates, the elected Democrats and party leaders who will ultimately decide this fight.

And the superdelegates are where the fight is moving: after 50 nominating contests, there are only 6 left, with just 217 pledged delegates left to be elected, not enough to get either of them over the 2,025 threshold necessary to win the nomination. Obama’s aides said Clinton would have to win close to 70 per cent of the remaining pledged delegates and superdelegates to win the nomination, a shift in the campaign’s trajectory that would seem possible only if some big development came along to hurt Obama. “Unfortunately for her, the math reasserts itself,” said Carter Eskew, a Democratic consultant not affiliated with either candidate.

“I don’t think this...