TOKYO, MAY 8: By strewing death and destruction across a rice-rich delta, the weekend cyclone that battered Myanmar has raised a new question for other poor Asian countries already scrambling to find affordable food: Will damage to its current crop force Myanmar to join the clamor for rice imports at a time when prices are at a record high?

So far, rising rice prices on commodity markets suggest the answer is yes. The price of rice has jumped over the last four days, a sign that traders see a further squeeze on a tight global market.

Storm damage to the Irrawaddy Delta, Myanmar’s low-lying rice bowl, means the country is likely to move from being a modest exporter to a major importer, traders say.

But other experts say they expect the cyclone’s impact on the rice market to be minor, adding that Myanmar produced only one per cent of the rice traded on global markets in 2007.

And while acknowledging that the cyclone damaged at least part of the current crop and that some supplies were lost, they say the next harvest due later this year may, in fact, benefit from the cyclone’s soaking.

“The moisture on the land is a good thing for rice, so their yearly production should go up, not down,” says Vichai Sriprasert, a leading Thai rice exporter and honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association. “They may have some problems with rice in the warehouses, but even in the delta area, the plant should not have been harmed.”

Both sides agree there will be a short-term scramble for food. Officials from the UN World Food Program working inside Myanmar report that at least one major rice warehouse was destroyed by the storm, while another had its roof torn off and its stocks drenched. They also say that much of the spring rice in the field which had yet to be harvested was showing signs of spoilage.

“Our staff report that following the tidal surge, some of the rice was yellow and smelled bad,” says Paul Risley, a spokesman for the WFP’s regional office in Bangkok. “Families will have lost their private food stocks as well.”