Islamabad shift

As they confront the policy chaos in the shaky coalition Government led by Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, Menon and Mukherjee will have to ask themselves at least one basic question on the peace process. Can the new political dispensation in Pakistan uphold the core assumptions on the bilateral engagement that India had worked out with Musharraf?

Asking this question has become necessary after three recent events. The first was a major violent attempt by militants to infiltrate into Jammu and Kashmir. A second was renewed military tension on the Kashmir frontier, in violation of the existing ceasefire arrangement. The third was the shock of the brutal bombings in Jaipur.

On its part, India has signalled that it will not let these events derail the peace process and remains open for decisive forward movement. But it needs two to tango. There are good reasons to wonder if the current government in Pakistan has the capacity to sustain the necessary environment for the peace process and the political will to take the next steps.

This bargain appeared to work reasonably well, at least until recently. A ceasefire all along the Indo-Pak frontier has held since the end of 2003. Trade between the two countries has picked up a new momentum. People-to-people contact has improved considerably.

India and Pakistan have also pressed ahead with a substantive dialogue on resolving the Kashmir question. These sensitive negotiations, between the special envoys of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Musharraf, have been held in secret. It is widely known, however, that the two sides had made considerable progress in defining the framework for a mutually acceptable settlement.

There have been extended periods of lull in cross-border infiltration and violent attacks in Kashmir and the rest of India, punctuated occasionally by brutal bombings like the ones in New Delhi (October 2005) and Mumbai (July 2006). In the...