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Fighting inflation: Need to avoid drastic knee-jerks, cautions PM

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P. Vaidyanathan Iyer Posted: May 20, 2008 at 0029 hrs IST
Related Stories: Inflation still a matter of concern: RBIInflation downtrend to continue: NathInflation to ease on govt steps: FinMinInflation slips to 11.80 pct from 11.99 pctInflation seen at 11.98 pct on Sept 27Inflation in single digits soon: Ahluwalia
New Delhi, May 19 : Barely weeks after he said that there was no need for “scare-mongering,” Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today strongly voiced his reservations against any further drastic administrative measures by the Government to rein in inflation.

In a meeting with Finance Minister P Chidambaram and Deputy Chairman Planning Commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia this morning, Singh is believed to have said that high Inflation was largely due to rising global crude Oil and commodity prices. An official, present in the meeting, said, “The PM said the government cannot be seen to be over-reacting.”

With the wholesale price index-based inflation rate rising continuously since February to creep towards 8 per cent now, the government has been taking various fiscal and administrative decisions, some of which, economists feel, go against the grain of a liberalising economy. Price controls, export bans and restriction on commodities futures trading are being seen by some in the government as knee-jerk reactions.

According to officials, the Prime Minister said that record wheat procurement of 20 lakh tonnes and a good monsoon forecast would help keep food prices low in the coming months. Further, he was of the opinion that given the steps — fiscal, administrative and monetary — already taken, the government must now ride the storm. Clearly, the PM’s message was not to panic each time inflation figures were released.

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For the week ending May 3, the year-on-year wholesale price index-based inflation rate stood at 7.83 per cent, the highest since November 2004. In fact, the rate for the week ending March 8 was revised upward by a wide margin to 7.8 per cent from 5.9 per cent. Analysts do not rule out the likelihood of inflation breaching the double-digit mark if global oil and commodity prices continue to rise. The officials said Singh was not in favour of price controls or other such measures since it sent wrong signals about India, a reforming state, to international investors. The PM, they added, preferred to hike subsidies on edible oils and other agricultural commodities, if need be, than take market-unfriendly actions.

When contacted, Montek Singh Ahluwalia told The Indian Express that steps such as banning futures trading had little to do with inflation. “Personally, I do not think that measures such as invoking the Essential Commodities Act work,” he said, adding that a slew of measures already taken would yield the desired results.

Rising prices, especially with general elections just a year ahead, is a...

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