CHANDIGARH, May 17: If there was one clear message from the Punjab Assembly election verdict just three months ago, it was the marginalisation of the extremist fringe in Sikh politics. The state, which witnessed its last major violent incident over a decade ago after several years of bloodbath and misery, did not elect even a single radical candidate.

The Akali Dal faction, led by Simranjit Singh Mann, was wiped out — Mann and his son trounced by huge margins. The Dal Khalsa, which had put up several candidates, got a drubbing. Similar was the case with former militants and ideologues who contested as Independents.

Mann, already under arrest for trying to garland the statue of former chief minister Beant Singh with photographs of his assassin at Jalandhar on Monday, has been trying to stage a comeback. So are others from his party, from the Dal Khalsa and the Damdami Taksal.

It’s no coincidence, therefore, that most of these leaders are in the forefront of the current protests. At Talwandi Sabo today, many of them were able to hijack the agenda from moderate Sikh leaders in their response to the provocative ad depicting the chief of Dera Sacha Sauda, Sant Gurmit Ram Rahim Singh.

The moderates had suggested a 10-day deadline for action against the Dera chief which was later revised to a demand for his arrest within three days. The suggestion to call for a “boycott” of Dera activities was converted to a demand for sealing of all Dera branches across the state. The moderates succeeded only in preventing the more aggressive ones from marching straight to the Dera and attacking it.

The sudden turn of events within the last four days which has made many observers here draw grim parallels with the 1978 Sikh-Nirankari clash in Amritsar on Baisakhi Day — considered the spark for the militancy that was to follow — cannot be attributed to merely an action-reaction chain.

For one, the Dera is not known to issue such ads without an occasion — an anniversary or an event. The controversial ad appeared on Sunday featuring a photo of the Dera chief stirring the ‘jaam-e-insaan’ dressed like Guru Gobind Singh who had founded the Khalsa after administering amrit to five of his followers. The provocation was too obvious to be missed.

Significantly, the ad also came just a fortnight before the CBI is scheduled to submit its final report to the Punjab and Haryana High Court on the alleged involvement of the Dera chief and some of his aides in cases involving the murder of two persons, including journalist Ram Chander Chattarpati, and alleged sexual molestation of some women in the well-guarded Dera.

The High Court had ordered a CBI inquiry following a petition by Chattarpati’s son complaining against the pace of the Haryana police investigation. The CBI, which sought a three-month extension, was pulled up by the court at the last hearing on April 16 and told to submit its final report by May 28. The court said that five years had passed and no genuine reason had been given by the agency to explain its delay.

Complicating the crisis and its negotiation is the political angle. The Dera had, for the first time, openly asked its supporters to vote for the Congress in the run-up to the recent elections. That call paid dividends: the Congress won 37 of the 65 seats in the Malwa region where the Dera has a strong following. Opposition leaders allege that the Dera’s support came as quid pro quo for “help” it expected in “tackling” the CBI probe.

How the ruling Akalis and the Opposition Congress now find a way to defuse the crisis isn’t clear yet. What is clear, however, is the fact that 2007 isn’t 1978. “Sikhs do not nurse feelings of neglect and discrimination they did in those days,” says Pramod Kumar, director of the Institute for Development and Communication.

“The fringe elements are a defeated lot, the Akalis have just taken over, the Congress is a house divided,” says Kumar. “And people shudder at the thought of a repeat of those violent days. That’s the ray of hope this time.”