Maya, Mulayam and the Muslim Vote

THE rhetoric over the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal acquires a new shade every day but what it has brought into focus is an old Uttar Pradesh chestnut: the fight for the Muslim vote.

UP chief minister Mayawati appears to have scored first, calling the deal anti-Muslim and withdrawing support from the UPA Government. The move has predictably put Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav on the defensive. And Mayawati could well create some uncomfortable moments for the man once called Maulana Mulayam.

The SP, explaining its support to the Congress, is now busy advancing the arguments of APJ Abdul Kalam on the merits of the nuclear agreement. Since the loss of assembly elections to Mayawati last year, Mulayam’s desperation has grown so much that he had to act now to keep his jalwa kayam. His MPs are frustrated after four years of being outside the power circle. And they are chafing not only at their loss of clout but also because they are facing a crackdown.

On top of all this is the broader realisation by Mulayam that isolation does not help. The SP lost to Mayawati in the assembly elections despite his party’s vote percentage going up. Mulayam then realised that isolating himself does not help much as the division of votes among the SP, Ajit Singh’s RLD and Congress will only inflict more damage on his party. No wonder, Mulayam is even ready to walk to 10 Janpath to renew ties with the Congress, a move that may not get him cabinet berths but might facilitate a future alliance in UP against Mayawati.

Meanwhile, Mayawati’s distancing from the deal, has won her some friends in the state. “The BSP stands to gain and will get a major chunk of the Muslim votes,” says Hafiz Nomania, a political analyst.

Mayawati’s overtures to the Muslims began much before the talk over the nuclear deal turned into a slanging match. Crafting coalitions, after all, has become her greatest strength. From advocating a Bahujan samaj to building bridges with Brahmins and upper castes, Mayawati’s evolving equations ended in her triumph last year.

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