D K Singh & Ravish Tiwari

New Delhi, July 17: With just a weekend away from the trust vote in Parliament and the minor political players assuming major roles, the UPA government’s crisis managers have begun to work overtime.

External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee held a closed-door meeting with UPA partners and allies including NCP chief Sharad Pawar and SP leader Ram Gopal Yadav this evening. And ailing Union Minister P R Dasmunshi was today flown in from Kolkata to New Delhi by a special aircraft to rework his political networking skills that he displayed as Parliamentary Affairs Minister in last year’s Presidential and Vice-Presidential elections.

Although there is a growing chorus in the Congress that it isn’t worried if the government falls — leaders cite Rahul Gandhi’s if-we-fall-so-be-it speech — there is also a sense of nervousness over the numbers. For the record, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Vyalar Ravi said: “We are still 280 plus.” But he refused to give details — and he has reason to.

As the numbers stand tonight, the trust vote looks set to go right down to the wire with the UPA struggling to reach the majority in the 542-member Lok Sabha (543 minus Kerala Congress MP P C Thomas who has no voting right).

Even assuming there is no defection from the Congress camp and the JMM and the RLD are on board, the UPA camp touches 264, eight short of a majority (see box).

This includes 32 from the SP plus three others — Raj Babbar, Beni Prasad Verma and NLP’s Baleshwar Yadav. Four SP members Atiq Ahmed, Rajnarayan Budhaulia, Jai Numbers: UPA has no confidence yet

Prakash and Munawwar Hasan are all set to dissent. There is an SP Parliamentary party meeting tomorrow where the leadership is expected to make another attempt to keep its flock together.

As it is, the fate of this government hinges on 13 MPs — two each from the JD(S), the NC, one each from TMC, NPF, AIMIM, DMK (Dayanidhi Maran), PMK’s E Ponnuswamy (who is said to have a different view from that of his party), and three Independents, including S K Bwiswmuthiary (Assam), Mani Charenamei (Manipur) and Thupstan Chhewang (J&K).

If all of them abstain, the House strength comes down to 529, which means the magic number is 265. Still, the UPA falls one MP short. UPA’s best-case will be to get the NC, the JD(S), Maran and a few others from the camp of potential abstainees on board to take the tally beyond 272.

And if these parties don’t agree, the lone Nagaland People’s Front MP W W Konyak may play a crucial role. Pawar, who has good ties with NPF leader and Nagaland CM Neiphieu Rio, met Konyak today. “He (Pawar) requested me to vote for the UPA. I requested him to speak to the Nagaland CM. I presume they have spoken. But I am yet to receive any directions,” said Konyak, who has also received calls from the BJP.

The hurdle here may be a simple fact that the Manmohan Singh government had dismissed the Rio government earlier this year.

To make matters worse, JMM chief Shibu Soren — who UPA crisis managers believe will eventually come on board with the promise of a Cabinet berth — continued to play truant. While he was in New Delhi on Wednesday, he remained incommunicado. What is giving nightmares to these crisis managers is the speculation about some party MPs in Bihar, Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Gujarat being approached by the Opposition camp.

Meanwhile, the government was planning to field its best speakers to participate in the debate on trust motion. While Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will move the motion, other speakers being considered include Rahul Gandhi, Pranab Mukherjee, Shivraj Patil, P Chidambaram, Kapil Sibal, Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot. Government sources, however, said the list of probable speakers was yet to be cleared by the Congress President and Rahul is yet to decide on whether he will intervene.

House Strength – 543

Effective Strength – 542 (Excluding PC Thomas, barred from voting)

Total UPA

Congress – 153

SP – 35

RJD – 24

DMK – 15*

NCP – 11

PMK – 5

JMM – 5**

LJP – 4

RLD – 3**

MDMK – 2

PDP – 1

KEC – 1

Muslim League – 1

RPI – 1

SDF – 1

TRS (A. Narendra) – 1

NLP - 1

Total – 264

* Minus Dayanidhi Maran

** Not in the UPA bag yet but likely to stay

What the UPA is banking on (to either abstain or switch in its favour)

JDS – 2

NC- 2

AIMIM – 1

NPF - 1

MNF – 1

TMC – 1

PMK (E. Ponnuswamy) – 1

Independents - 3

Total – 12

editor@expressindia.com