The Indian Express:
The World Bank’s new poverty data is vulnerable to some statistical interrogation. And the Indian government’s poverty estimation methodology is in part outdated. Our columnist today explores these issues. And it is important to know the absolute incidence of poverty and its rate of decline. Also important is to remember that there’s politics in poverty studies — just as governments may want to underestimate poverty, global anti-poverty organisations, whether institutional or private ones headed by rock musicians, might have an interest in keeping poverty levels high. All this will and should be debated by economists and statisticians (rock musicians may join in, too). But for the bread and butter politician in India who confronts the roti, kapda, maakan question, all poverty data must be read as giving one single message: the persistence of poverty is a failure of the state, not of the market.
At the basic, intuitive and most important level, poverty is lack of sufficient income and income generation is a function of economic activity. If there were more better-paying jobs, there would be much less poverty. That means, unless there’s robust overall economic growth, there will be no substantial poverty reduction. That’s why all data, even the Bank’s, show decline in poverty in the period growth has picked up. But growth need not generate as many jobs — basically, low-skilled, semi-skilled industrial employment — as a big poverty reduction impact would require. For that, broadly speaking, four things must happen. Labour laws must not protect insiders, that is, unionised workforce, and allow employers flexibility to hire fresh workers. Agricultural occupations must not be romanticised. Primary education must be of a certain minimum standard so that chances of factory employability increase. Primary health must offer basic levels of care for workers. The state has failed and continues to fail on all four fronts.
