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N-deal: The turnaround of the US Congress

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Posted: Jul 11, 2006 at 0009 hrs IST
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Several weeks ago, the chances of a nuclear deal with India anytime soon seemed unlikely. There was considerable skepticism about the merits of the proposal in the US Congress, which had to vote on a bill to make India an exception to American nuclear nonproliferation legislation.

The debate on the issue seemed headed for the familiar partisan wrangling in an important election year.

Congressman Tom Lantos, one of the bill’s strongest supporters, voiced the uncertainty of a favorable result, by suggesting delaying a definitive vote. Yet, when the draft bills came before the relevant foreign relations committees of the two houses of the US Congress in the last week of June, the mood was much more positive.

Several senators at the June 29 legislative mark-up used the word “trust” to characterise their belief that the proposal will not undermine US nuclear nonproliferation goals. Still others argued that the likely strategic gains of close association with a rising India far outweighed the risks to nuclear nonproliferation.

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On the eve of the June 29 meeting, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Republican Party majority leader Richard Lugar described the nuclear pact as the most important strategic diplomatic initiative undertaken by President George W Bush—a sentiment echoed by both Democratic and Republican senators as they voted 15 to 2 in favor of the bill.

Members of the House International Relations Committee two days earlier, with almost identical sentiments expressed, voted 37 to 5 for a similar bill.

The two houses of Congress will almost certainly support a nuclear deal by an overwhelming margin with support from the leadership of both major political parties, making this initiative one of the few significant trouble-free policies of the Bush administration.

What happened to turn this widespread skepticism into trust?

I think there are three explanations.

First was the judicious White House decision to support a modification of the draft bill to give the Congress a role in the implementation of the deal that was missing in its original version. Second, the supporters were quite effective in convincing members of Congress that the strategic gains outweighed the risks to nuclear nonproliferation. Third and perhaps most important, was vigorous lobbying, especially the efforts of the increasingly influential Indian-American community.

The Bush administration—for tactical reasons—had largely kept Congress uninformed about the initiative to make India an exception to US nonproliferation legislation, a decision that deeply antagonized both Republican and Democratic legislators. They were also angry that the administration’s draft bill lacked Congressional oversight over a proposal that is a dramatic departure from long-established nonproliferation policy.

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