Happy New Year! Or would it be more appropriate to say Happy New Elections? Forget the debate on whether or not there shall be early polls, what is certain is that a General Election must be held well before the next New Year’s Day. (And confirming that this is indeed to be the Year of Elections, let us not forget that the United States, the second largest democracy on Earth, will also hold a presidential election in November.)

One question haunts the Congress (I): can it return to power? There hasn’t been a Congressman in the Union Cabinet since May 1996, well over seven years, almost eight. And even so the last Congress (I) ministry didn’t enjoy a majority in the Lok Sabha until the latter part of its term. The last time the party actually came to power on the back of an electoral mandate was in 1984, when Rajiv Gandhi won the largest majority ever seen in India’s electoral history. Seemingly appalled at the result, the Indian voter has firmly refused ever since to give even a simple majority to a single party. Even the sympathy wave following the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi could not reverse that trend.

These twenty years have seen no less than seven prime ministers — Rajiv Gandhi, V.P. Singh, Chandrashekhar, Narasimha Rao, H.D. Deve Gowda, I.K. Gujral and Atal Behari Vajpayee. (And that is without counting Indira Gandhi who was the chief executive at the beginning of the period if we take a strict definition of twenty years!) All of them, bar one, were either Congressmen, former Congressmen, or supported by the Congress (I) during their tenure. The exception is the current prime minister, who also holds the distinction of having kept the Congress (I) out of power for a longer period than at any point since 1947.

The Congress (I) appears, finally, to have understood the implications of these successive electoral defeats. Surrendering long-cherished dreams of exercising power in glorious isolation, it has officially embraced the doctrine of coalitions. This, to my mind, is a healthy development. It may be a while before India enjoys the benefits of a two-party arrangement, but we are well on the way to creating a stable two-front system.

We have also been assured by politicians of every stripe that the 14th General Election shall be fought on the “development” plank. This, once again, is a healthy development. But if true should we not take a good hard look at the economic philosophies adopted by the rival fronts?

It goes without saying that a principal ally of the Congress (I) must be the Left Front. And Harkishen Singh Surjeet, the general-secretary of the CPI(M), has already openly confirmed his group’s willingness to enter a “secular” alliance. Put aside for the moment the vexed question of whether such a coalition can work in West Bengal and Kerala (the major states where the Left Front is a factor). Consider only the economic implications of a front formed by Congressmen and Marxists.

The CPI(M) claims a coherent economic philosophy. It opposes free markets, deplores even the limited liberalisation we enjoy in India, and pleads for a return to the days when the state held the “commanding heights” of the economy.

Where does the Congress (I) stand in all this? We all know that there is a faction in the party which sympathises with the views of the Left Front. But are these attitudes held by the Congress (I) as a whole?

To date, the party has been schizophrenic when confronted by this uncomfortable question. Put Congressmen on a talk-show, and they will cite the name of Manmohan Singh as though it were a talisman that would woo middle-class votes. (The name of his boss, Narasimha Rao, must never be taken lest it offend the First Family of the Congress!) But put them out on the hustings, and all talk of economic liberalisation fades away.

This hypocrisy may have served the party’s purposes well enough in the past, but is it a valid tactic any longer? I believe that the effects of liberalisation have finally begun to trickle down; even if they have not, the Indian voter is at least aware of the potential benefits. There is more to be gained by promising a bonfire of controls rather than a return to the “licence-permit-quota raj”. But can the Congress carry forward the task of preparing the Indian economy for the challenges of the twenty-first century? How shall it do so if its principal ally is wedded to the dicta of a long-dead German philosopher?

Sonia Gandhi and her party may not have much time to answer these vexed questions. If the General Election is on schedule, it shall be held no later than October; if brought forward it could be as early as April. (Summer and the monsoons reduce the chances of polling in May, June, July, and August.)

Following statements by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajaypee, the Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani, and senior allies such as Shiv Sena supremo Bal Thackeray, the odds are in favour of an April poll. But then the Lok Sabha must be dissolved in February, before the Budget is presented, certainly no later than February 15. Having spurned all talk of alliances for the better part of the last eight years, this means the Congress (I) must reverse itself in about eight weeks!