Amidst the trials and tribulations of thousands who were hit by the sudden tsunami, this is an attempt to look at the overall malaise rather than an isolated incident. Though the incident could not have been prevented since earthquakes cannot be predicted, the common bane is that loss of lives perhaps could have been reduced. Establishments, both political and scientific, have been flayed for their failure to alert coastal regions of the impending danger.
Unfortunately, the discordant voices blaming the system are not being pragmatic. For instance, do the learned seismologists and the media alike expect Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa to personally call all residents along the coastline after a random warning about a tsunami?
The political structure, by design, is such that communicating such sensitive information within a few minutes over a large geographical spread is not practically possible. A certain chain of reporting has to be followed which does consume time.
As for role of scientific establishments sitting on vital information during the golden hours after the earthquake, let us not forget these institutions are headed by bureaucrats. While its essential that science and technology departments are headed by scientists, let us not forget that an institution is only a reflection of the people in the society. The overall morass plaguing the society is bound to rub off on scientists too. In the broader perspective, if institutions are built around rules and regulations, quick response will never be its forte.
The solution is to create institutions around scientific minds ignited with nationalistic fervour. I, for instance, returned to India leaving a lucrative career in the United Kingdom in the late ’60s because of the fervent request made by Vikram Sarabhai, the charismatic scientific leader. I did not have second thoughts about joining the Indian Space Research Organisation as it was led by Sarabhai. We recruited bright individuals for the Indian Space and Research Organisation informally at some of the strangest venues, including a cricket ground during a match. It was a pursuit to have the best without going through the rigmarole of selection tests and clearance by innumerable boards. That is not the case now.
Even the hue and cry over a fake alarm raised by the Centre on possible aftershocks followed by tsunami is not required. Any minister, in his right senses, perhaps will take a stand to be safe rather being sorry. Though the warning turned untrue, it is better than having hundreds dead again by not heeding to a specific information supplied by a research firm. Information, strangely, in times of crisis is a double-edged weapon.
Well, there is an argument that the ministers concerned should have cross-checked the information with Indian scientific establishments before putting out the alert signal. The problem is, once bitten, twice shy. No institute would have told the minister to turn a deaf ear to the information provided by Terra Research.
Though the government can be exonerated of any serious faux pas in the present imbroglio, the regime has to urgently learn from the exigencies of the tsunami mayhem. Firstly, there is a crying need to increase the allocation on science and technology in India. For a country of India’s size and scale, a meagre allotment of 0.65 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to science and technology is literally a cruel joke. It has to go up to at least 4 per cent of the GDP.
During my stint as secretary of the Department of Science and Technology (DST), the then prime minister, Rajiv Gandhi, had the vision to hike the budgetary allocation from 0.7 per cent to 1.1 per cent of the GDP. But successive governments have cut on the allocation,a sign of myopic planning. Unless the spending on Research and Development (R&D) is treated as an investment in future, India will have to depend on ad hoc solutions.
Another long-term corrective measure is to have more scientists on the Disaster Management Groups. Though India has its share of DMGs, it woefully lacks ample number of scientists. As a result, the whole exercise of relief and rehabilitation only gets an administrative outlook while science takes a backseat.
Many people have broached the idea of joining an international early warning system vis-a-vis the tsunami. Undoubtedly, there is a need to put in place an early warning system. But not at the cost of national security since technical co-operation involves sharing of sensitive data. For example, there is no need to be part of an alliance led by United States as it makes sense only for nations in the Pacific Rim. India should have an alliance, but choose partners who essentially form part of the Indian Ocean chain. In short, geographical necessities should dictate the alliance and not economic or diplomatic considerations.
For the uninitiated, India already has technical co-operation with two of the world’s largest organisations associated with the analysis of seismic data. The International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Interior of Earth based in UK has a tie-up with the Hyderabad situated Indian Geophysical Union. In addition, the Indian Society of Earthquake Technology attached to IIT, Roorkee, has a formal relation with the International Association of Earthquake Engineering, California.
Meanwhile, it was slightly surprising to note the aberrations in the critical statements of some well-known seismologists over the tsunami incident. One mistake, for instance, is the belief that scientific community failed to utilise the Oceansat I (IRS-P4) launched in May 1999 to gauge the seismic upheaval along the coastline. Fact is the Oceansat-I was never meant to forecast or measure any seismic activity, that too under the sea. It is meant to study a host of ocean atmospheric parameters, including the sea surface. Even the Oceansat-II, scheduled to be put into the orbit late next year, would only be a sophisticated version of Oceansat-I. The only added feature of Oceansat-II would be its innate ability to measure wave shapes and wave heights over a long period of time.
It the end, I can only request us to learn from our mistakes, compile the new information at hand and vow to amend certain anomalies pointed out by several quarters.
As told to Devraj Dasgupta