BATTICALOA, November 16 Police wielding AK-47s guarded ballot boxes in Sri Lanka’s restive east on Wednesday as thousands of observers and troops fanned out across the island on the eve of a close-fought presidential poll.

Police reinforcements, some in armoured vehicles, were drafted in to the eastern town of Batticaloa, near territory controlled by Tamil Tiger rebels, but the military and election monitors said the poll run-up was among the calmest in years. “It has been very, very quiet,” military spokesman Brigadier. Nalin Witharana said.

Thursday’s election is a two-horse race which analysts say is a referendum on how to forge lasting peace with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and develop a rural economy battered by two decades of civil war and by last December’s tsunami.

Much could depend on how the minority Tamil population vote, especially in Tiger-dominated areas. Opposition challenger Ranil Wickremesinghe had been expected to pick up their votes, but Tiger front organisations have been distributing leaflets telling voters to stay at home.

Wickremesinghe is seen as more conciliatory to the Tigers than Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse who has promised to take a far tougher line with the Tigers, angering the rebels.

Responding to claims in an unsourced report that the Tigers had decided to do a U-turn and encourage residents in areas they control to vote, S. Puleedevan, head of the rebels’ Peace Secretariat called the story “totally fabricated” and said the LTTE would maintain its “neutral position”.

“Chances are very bleak. We think things will remain more or less the same (whoever wins),” he added.

While analysts think a return to war is unlikely, they say the Tigers have used the truce to regroup and are in no hurry for a final deal to end a war that has killed over 64,000 people.