An earthquake in islands off Bandar Abbas in Iran sent tremors here in Dubai and other parts of the Emirates. The shockwaves felt here are a metaphor of sorts for all the GCC countries: they look with anxiety at the entire troubled arc from Iran to Iraq.

This can be disconcerting for a city-state like Dubai, booming beyond imagination, setting itself up as a replacement for what Beirut was to the Middle East 30 years ago. The great thing about Beirut was that you could ski in the mountains and sun bathe on the beaches within an hour. Well, Dubai now has a full fledged ski resort, snow and all, alongside a coastline. That is why the abrupt shift in Washington’s attitude to Tehran has generated a nervous sort of excitement here.

The daily front page editorial in Dubai’s Khaleej Times is today dedicated to US overtures to Iran. The editorial says: ‘‘The first hint of a possible shift in the US stand in respect of Iran came last month from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. She told a Senate panel that the Bush administration was likely to establish direct communications with Tehran as part of the ongoing efforts to effect a turnaround in the volatile situation in neighbouring Iraq’’. Most important, US ambassador to Baghdad Zalmay Khalilzad is meeting Iranian officials, seeking their co-operation in stabilising Iraq.

It is universally recognised that post 9/11, Iran has been a beneficiary of US actions in Afghanistan and Iraq. The removal of the Taliban and Saddam Hussein were perceived as great gains by Tehran. And, even US officials have admitted, Iran behaved ‘‘responsibly’’ through the subsequent turbulence in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Indeed, Iran also has a border with Pakistan (Baluchistan) and wields considerable influence over the Hizbullah in Lebanon. The advisors Condoleezza Rice drafted for Iraq told some of us that Washington had had no serious complaints against Iran from Iraq right upto Lebanon.

In the absence of diplomatic normalisation, back channel Washington-Tehran entente was working. Of all the foreign ministers who visited Baghdad’s Green Zone, the US citadel in Iraq, only Kamal Kharazi was carefully transported by the Americans to Najaf for meetings with Iraqi Shia clerics.

Ever since the US invaded Iraq, New Delhi’s advice to Washington has been consistent: Iraq cannot be stabilised without involving Iran and Turkey.

This was the state of play when drums began to beat on Iran’s nuclear intentions, resulting in the September 24 vote at the IAEA meet in Vienna. Iran’s nuclear plans were known right through the US occupation of Iraq.

State department officials, involved in Iran policy, have been attending a seminar in Dubai. In off-the-record conversations, they confirm two facts. During Iran’s presidential elections, the US’s preferred candidate was Hashemi Rafsanjani. The victory of President Ahmadinejad, accompanied by allegations—found to be wrong—that he was among the Iranian radicals who had laid siege to the US embassy in Tehran, prompted the US neo cons to push for UN sanctions on the nuclear issue. Secondly, the US taking the lead against Iran was also designed to stay Israel’s hand from unilateral action.

Now that the conflictual phase on the nuclear issue has yielded to negotiations, the US sees the time as propitious for ‘‘constructive engagement’’ with Iran. A new thinking on the Iraq situation is discernible in Condoleezza Rice’s office.

Zalmay Khalilzad’s direct meeting with Iranian officials is a tectonic shift in US-Iran relations. It could come in handy in weeks and months to come when Washington will be under continuous pressure to provide even the haziest outlines of the Iraq ‘‘Endgame’’.

What kind of help can Iran provide? There are obvious linkages between Iraq’s Shia majority and the Islamic Republic. But so far there have been no serious allegations of ‘‘meddling’’ except one or two tepid protests by British troops in Basra.

As the Khaleej Times editorial says, a rare ‘‘opportunity beckons Iran’’. That, of course, is true. But what will Khalilzad ask for? Iranian influence on Najaf to make the December 15 elections more attractive to the Sunnis by toning down on a range of issues?

The wily Ahmad Chalabi has been in Tehran. He has been a friend of Khalilzad and Dick Cheney. Is Chalabi seeking a higher profile on the Shia ticket?