NEW DELHI, AUGUST 28: A recent survey, commissioned by the BJP leadership, predicts only a simple majority for the party if immediate Assembly polls were held in Gujarat. The survey gives the party 96 out of 182 seats — a majority of only five — and cautions it against an erosion in its support base hereafter.

This is not the first time the BJP has commissioned such a survey. It carried out one in April in the state besides one in Goa before Assembly polls. A Delhi-based company commissioned for the exercise interviewed 11,700 odd voters in the state between August 17- 20.

The survey claims that polls in April would have enabled the party to repeat its 1998 performance, when it bagged 117 seats, compared to 53 of the Congress. However, the Congress is catching up fast and is currently tipped to get 77 seats with others getting seven.

The BJP share in the vote would be 48.1 per cent, compared to 42.5 per cent of the Congress and 9.4 pc of Independents and others, it claims.

It concludes: ‘‘The Congress seems to have got even with the BJP on all issues except issues concerning religious sentiments. Majority of Hindus consider BJP as the best party for protecting their religious sentiments while Muslims think the same about the Congress. However, one should not ignore the fact that majority of voters consider Congress better placed for maintaining communal harmony. This indicated, if communal conflict gets intense and starts disturbing people’s routine life, they will start looking out for options of peace; Congress will be preferred over the BJP.’’

The projections mark a loss of 21 seats for the BJP after April, when the same exercise was conducted. The last exercise predicted 118 seats for the BJP and 62 for the Congress.

The appointment of Vaghela as Gujarat Congress chief has apparently given a boost to the party’s prospects. At least 75 per cent Congressmen reportedly feel that they will perform better in polls under Vaghela’s leadership. Almost half the voters also agree that the Gujarat Congress under Vaghela is better placed to take on the BJP.

The survey also shows a sharp decline in the public rating of Chief Minister Narendra Modi. He is currently favoured by 43.7 per cent, compared to 54.5 per cent in April, it claims.

The BJP and the Congress, according to the survey, would hold on to their 1999 Lok Sabha poll positions ‘‘with marginal gains and losses’’ in central Gujarat (77 seats). However, the BJP is in for setbacks in the remaining three regions of south Gujarat, north Gujarat and Saurashtra.

The party enjoys greater support among upper castes such as Brahmins, Kshatriyas, Banias and Patels, while the Congress is on a strong wicket among SCs, STs and Muslims. The BJP still has an upper hand among Kshatriyas notwithstanding Vaghela’s presence, claims the survey.