The meaning being read into Rajnath Singh’s elevation as BJP president obscures the more obvious reality that the choice is a function of the total confusion in the party, particularly at its higher reaches.

In electoral politics, Rajnath is no champion. Not only has he lost several elections himself, he led the party to a humiliating third spot in the February 2002 elections in Uttar Pradesh. The RSS can argue that there was so much confusion within the BJP on whether to pursue a soft saffron or a hard line that the cadres were confused even though Rajnath Singh covered the last lap with a barrage against SIMI and suchlike Muslim targets.

Never was the global and regional situation theoretically more conducive to communal politics. It was a post-9/11 world; television screens were covered with fireworks in Afghanistan; Osama bin Laden was the focus of world terror. After the attack on Parliament a conflict with Pakistan seemed imminent; Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the prime minister; he had projected himself as a great Lucknow-wala. And yet the BJP was trounced in UP.

When Rajnath Singh failed under communal circumstances so propitious, why will he succeed now? One possibility is that his organisational talents will be brought into play to re-establish the linkages within the parivar. The other possible chore for him will be to reclaim the powerful Thakur community which is drifting away to groups like the Samajwadi Party.

A possibly apocryphal story making the rounds in Lucknow is a conversation between Mulayam Singh Yadav and Lalji Tandon. ‘‘Five or six more riots as in Mau, and things will be alright for us’’. The conversation has probably never taken place, but observers in UP are giving currency to the proposition that a rise in communal temperatures is advantageous to the SP as well as to the BJP.

One ingredient of any BJP electoral strategy will be to seek Hindu consolidation by creating an ‘Other’, in this case the minority. This kind of atmosphere strikes fear in the heart of the minorities who will then snuggle upto the SP.

It is critical for the SP to keep its hold on Muslims. That it is weakening is clear from conversations with a cross-section of minority groups. You cannot keep the minorities in your fold in perpetuity out of a sense of fear. The difficulty for the SP is that Mayawati is in slow stages unveiling a strategy of possible adjustment with the Congress after the 2007 polls.

The Congress in UP, as in the rest of the country, was primarily a Brahmin led formation from the days of Govind Ballabh Pant. When the Congress collapsed under the weight of the social justice agenda, (Muslims defected en masse on account of Narasimha Rao’s perceived inaction during the Babri demolition) the Brahmins drifted towards the only other upper caste formation — the BJP. The BJP, sensitive to the post-Mandal mood, produced Kalyan Singh, a backward, as chief minister.

After running from pillar to post, the Brahmin is searching for a stable political habitat. Mayawati has spotted this need and has held rallies with the community across the length and breadth of the state.

The old Congress coalition was Brahmins at the top of the heap, a sprinkling of other upper castes and a solid base of Dalits and minorities. The Congress pyramid cannot be restored. But the same coalition can be put together in a more flat structure, the pyramid giving way to a flat table.

An event of considerable political importance has gone relatively unnoticed. In the last week of December, the Congress organised the biggest rally it has put together in years. And this, without Sonia Gandhi or Rahul Gandhi being present. If the Congress’ first family were to concentrate on UP, there is a stirring which may acquire more life. Not for a moment must the Congress imagine that it is anything resembling a force in UP. But the rally did demonstrate that it has potential as a future coalition partner. All of this clearly makes Mulayam Singh nervous.

Into all of this slow churning, V.P. Singh has appeared, holding hands with Ajit Singh of the Lok Dal and other smaller groups. Despite his indifferent health, he has addressed half a dozen rallies in UP. At a rally on Charan Singh’s birth anniversary, V.P. Singh, Brinda Karat, D. Raja, Nitish Kumar and Sharad Yadav shared a platform at Delhi’s Ram Lila ground.