Iran’s nuclear research programme began in 1967 with the establishment of the Tehran Nuclear Research Center, equipped with a US-supplied nuclear research reactor. It signed the NPT in 1968 and ratified it in 1970 and planned to construct up to 23 nuclear power stations with the help of other countries, the US included, by 2000. After a lull during the war with Iraq, work began again and in 1995, Iran signed a contract with Russia on the Bushehr Nuclear Power Facility. Other major N-plants are at Isfahan, Natanz, Arak and Lashkar A’bad. IAEA inspected most facilities regularly but reported in the past, most recently in November 2005, that Iran hadn’t been transparent in disclosing aspects of its nuclear programme.

How the conflict began

In 2005, the US and the EU3 (France, Germany and UK) began to assert Iran had forfeited enrichment rights accorded to it as an NPT signatory by its clandestine weapons programme, proof of which had trickled in over the past three years. Iran and some developing nations who have signed the NPT believe the Western position to be hypocritical. Iran also compares its treatment as a signatory to the NPT with three nations that have not signed the treaty : Israel, India and Pakistan, all nuclear-weapons states.

The story as told by Tehran

Iran says it needs nuclear energy despite its vast oil reserves to meet the demands of a growing population and the economy. Others point out that Iran is located in a rough, nuclearised neighbourhood (Israel, Pakistan). And with American presence in its proximity in Afghanistan and Iraq, it has serious security concerns, especially since it has been designated a part of the ‘‘Axis of Evil’’ by President George W Bush. The election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President of Iran in 2005—he is openly hostile to Israel, bitterly opposed to the US and a hardline nationalist—has raised passions on both side of the divide. Ahmadinejad told the UN that Iran stood by its rights on enriching uranium.

The face saver?

Uranium ore when converted yields uranium hexafluoride for use as fuel in nuclear plants. The spent fuel rods are then reprocessed to extract Uranium 235 or plutonium, used in nuclear weapons. The US, since 2002, wants another country, Russia prominently, to enrich Iran’s nuclear material to prevent any illegal extraction of weapons-grade plutonium or uranium. In 2004, EU offered civil nuclear technologies to Iran if it permanently gave up its enrichment rights, an offer Iran rejected. Russia’s plan has also not been accepted by Iran till date.

One more chance at Moscow

The EU3 unsuccessfully tried to get Iran to compromise. Russia and China have been against any precipitate action against Iran, but both have also been unable to get Iran to change its stance. When all diplomatic initiatives faltered, the IAEA voted in Vienna on February 11 to report Iran to the UN Security Council but gave it time till March to reconsider. Iran agreed on negotiations and will hold talks with both Moscow and the EU3.

What experts think

IT’S LEGITIMATE: Iran has a legitimate economic case for using nuclear power, and the means to manufacture the necessary fuel domestically. It also has the legal right to do so. But the US and the European Union demand that Iran and other countries abandon any indigenous capabilities and rely solely on western fuel suppliers to power their economy.... Under the guise of non-proliferation, the EU and the US also want to create an underclass of nuclear energy have-nots, concentrating what could become the world’s sole major source of energy in the hands of the few nations that have granted themselves the right to it. Iran presents a convenient opportunity to set a precedent to be used against other aspirants for nuclear power in the developing world. —Cyrus Safdari of the International Institute for Caspian Studies, Tehran, in Le Monde Diplomatique

CARROT VS STICK: The carrot the Iranians want for abandoning their nuclear program is not just unfettered trade with the West, but some kind of assurances that if they give up their nuclear research programs, the US will agree to some kind of nonaggression accord. The Bush team has been reluctant to do this, because it wants regime change in Iran.... We can live with an Iran with nuclear power reactors, we cannot accept an Iran with the plants to enrich uranium or reprocess plutonium. This would put them ‘‘a screwdriver’s turn’’ away from bomb-making capability. We need to create a new international regime that prevents any new country from building such facilities and puts the existing facilities under international safeguards. —Thomas Friedman, New York Times

RUSSIA, CHINA HANDS TIED: sanctions that prevented Iran from importing, say, refined oil products, including gasoline, could bring its economy to a grinding halt. Perhaps more important, the subsequent shortages would disproportionately affect President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s political base, the urban underclass and lower-middle class, as well as the military. No doubt there would be some cost to Western countries if Iran chose to retaliate by lowering or shutting down its oil production. But Iran would be unlikely to halt oil production for long, because under sanctions, it would depend more than ever on oil revenue to maintain its grip on power.... Russia has little strategic interest in supporting the Iranian cause. While it may see Iran as a useful tool for balancing US power in the Middle East, it has far more to fear from Iran’s nuclear program in the long term than does the United States or Europe.... While China has committed to substantial investments in Iran’s oil and gas sector, it is unlikely to jeopardize its relationship with the United States and the European Union over the issue.—Mel Levine, Alex Terkeltaub and Alex Gorbansky, The Washington Post

WHO Iran vs the rest of the world 27 countries, including India, voted against Iran and 3 in favour (5 abstained) at the February 11 meeting of the IAEA in Vienna.

WHY Iran wants to enrich nuclear fuel, West thinks it will use programme to produce weapons-grade plutonium.

WHERE IAEA and West suspects clandestine weapons research at Iran’s Parchin, Lavizan and Chalous facilities.

WHERE 35-member IAEA Board of Governors meets in Moscow on March 6 again. A final decision may be taken.

THE 6th WHAT NEXT • The UNSC often enforces peace by imposing sanctions. The range of sanctions includes comprehensive economic and trade sanctions and/or more targeted measures such as arms embargoes, travel bans, financial or diplomatic restrictions. Targeted sanctions can involve the freezing of assets and blocking financial transactions. • Sanctions against oil trade can hobble Iran, but oil prices may also go up globally. • There is talk of US, or Israel, resorting to a “military option” to put Iran in line. • A diplomatic strategy that comprises both threats (sanctions, boycott, military action) and incentives (trade, investment, membership of WTO) may successfully wean Iran away from its confrontationist path.