The myth being sold about nuclear bijlee

One question about the continuing drama and deepening political crisis over the Indo-US nuclear deal fills me with agony: Americans know what they want out of this agreement, but do we?

The UPA Government is fooling the nation by presenting the deal as a panacea for India’s chronic power scarcity. “Opponents of the deal are enemies of India’s development,” thundered Sonia Gandhi at a rally in Haryana. True, her party did a quick U-turn by putting out a rather creative interpretation on her combative remark — saying it was “Haryana-specific”! But rest assured that it will revive the “enemies of development” theme, now that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, with the apparent backing of the only person who wields real authority in the UPA coalition, has done yet another U-turn.

But will the deal really answer the ‘B’ part of the BSP (bijlee, sadak, paani) needs of our people? For an answer, turn to the ‘Integrated Energy Policy’ report of the Planning Commission’s expert committee in August 2006. It projects 11 different fuel-mix scenarios up to 2031-32 for achieving eight per cent annual GDP growth rate.

In none of these scenarios do we see the slightest hint of the “nuclear renaissance” that the prime minister has been so grandiloquently promising. The report says: “Even if a 20-fold increase takes place in India’s nuclear power capacity by 2031-32, the contribution of nuclear energy to India’s energy mix is, at best, expected to be 4-6.4 per cent.” This, even in the most “optimistic scenario” of supply of imported nuclear fuel, made possible through the deal. Remember that Dr Anil Kakodkar, chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, was a member of this expert committee.

A person closely associated with the report who wishes to remain unnamed said to me: “There is no way in hell or heaven that India’s nuclear power capacity can go up from 4,000 MW at present to anywhere near the best-case projection of 63,000 MW by 2030. With or without the deal with the U.S., nuclear energy is not going to be the solution to India’s energy needs. The proponents of the deal know this. They are essentially selling a strategic alliance with the US in the name of energy security, since the common man understands daily bijlee shortages better than the intricacies of the 123 agreement.” Isn’t this deception, pure and simple?

And for this illusory promise of energy security, look what the UPA government is giving up in its bargain with America: India’s sovereign right to decide the future development of our nuclear weapons programme as per our own independent assessment of our national security needs. This compromise could well lead to a subservient strategic partnership, one requiring India to take shelter under America’s nuclear and missile-defence umbrella. Washington has never been coy about indicating that this is it wants.

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